Buyer’s remorse about Labour? Why it's clear Keir Starmer is preparing rerun of Tory austerity

Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ visit to China and Keir Starmer’s insistence on staying outside the EU single market leaves the UK more vulnerable than at any time since the Second World War

The summer of 2024 must seem like a lifetime ago for Labour’s Scotland branch. Back then, Labour swept to victory across the UK, taking Tory-held constituency after Tory-held constituency right across England, and beating the SNP in close to 40 of Scotland’s constituencies.

On the morning after the general election, there was Sir Keir Starmer, standing at the steps of Downing Street, with a majority of over 160, which although won on about a third of the vote was double Boris Johnson’s 2019 majority.

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In Scotland, the warm red glow that was apparently emanating would surely have an impact on the outcome of the Holyrood elections. After such a stunning victory for his party, the Scottish Labour leader’s path to Bute House – after a long period in the political wilderness, looked certain.

Keir and Victoria Starmer on the steps of 10 Downing Street the day after July's general election. How times have changed (Picture: Leon Neal)Keir and Victoria Starmer on the steps of 10 Downing Street the day after July's general election. How times have changed (Picture: Leon Neal)
Keir and Victoria Starmer on the steps of 10 Downing Street the day after July's general election. How times have changed (Picture: Leon Neal) | Getty Images

Labour’s despair

How things have changed. Polling this week, published by the Scottish political podcast Holyrood Sources, shows an incredible reversal of Labour’s fortunes, and further cements a sense of public sourness with the UK Government, leading to a heavy sense of despair in Labour circles. Some might wave this away as just one poll, but this is part of a continuing trend that spells trouble for Labour and a sense of opportunity for the SNP.

There’s no doubt that a combination of people feeling scunnered with the Conservatives, a desire for change at Westminster, and some SNP voters feeling the party needed to do more to win their support, was a big driver of Labour’s general election success in Scotland.

But after a litany of bad policy choices, broken promises, poor political judgment, and a Labour government that has done little to deliver the change people were crying out for at Westminster, it’s becoming increasingly clear that voters are willing to give the SNP a fresh look.

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While there is still much work to do, John Swinney’s authoritative, dignified and purposeful leadership is winning us the right to be heard once again, and we will work relentlessly to rebuild our relationship with voters across Scotland.

Chancellor takes begging bowl to China

For the SNP, Labour’s failings in government provide both a lesson and an opportunity. Labour’s transformation from claiming to be agents of social democratic change in opposition to its current incarnation as “ruthless” champions of fiscal conservatism has left a bitter taste in the mouths of voters.

The Chancellor’s begging bowl visit to China, in which she returned with investment totalling less than half the annual budget of Glasgow City Council, means Rachel Reeves now faces an unenviable set of choices as the Treasury prepares for the Spring Statement in March.

And though one can’t singularly blame the Chancellor for the movement of global markets, her refusal to rule out a new round of public service cuts or tax rises as a response to increasing costs of government debt is a far cry from the sloganeering of last year’s campaigning.

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Failure of leadership

Labour’s emerging economic vision reveals how far they have drifted from social democratic principles. The Chancellor’s steadfast refusal to even discuss rejoining the EU single market or customs union ignores the mounting evidence of Brexit's economic damage. It also leaves the UK, as the minister for the Indo-Pacific, Catherine West MP, told the Commons, in a particularly “vulnerable” place.

This isn't just political timidity but is a failure of economic leadership that condemns workers and businesses to continued trade friction and reduced opportunities especially for young people.

Most troubling is Reeves' willingness to embrace austerity-lite economics. Despite overwhelming evidence that the Conservative's austerity program devastated public services and widened inequality – something the Chancellor was once a warrior against – Starmer and Reeves have laid the groundwork to follow a similar path.

Her commitment to "iron-clad" fiscal rules and the Prime Minister reportedly telling his Cabinet colleagues to be “ruthless” in pursuit of spending cuts makes plain that they’re gearing up for a rerun of the failed austerity policies of the 2010s.

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SNP’s bold thinking

By contrast, First Minister John Swinney is making the case for bold economic thinking: sustainable economic growth, major public investment in green infrastructure, a comprehensive attack on child poverty and restoring and modernising Scotland’s public services.

From Labour, we get cautious triangulation and a lack of ambition, with a plan that seems designed to reassure the City of London rather than rebuild the country’s battered public realm and appeal to voters across the UK who feel that Westminster is doing little for them.

The China visit exemplifies this approach. While our European neighbours are developing coordinated strategies to protect strategic industries and reduce dependence on Chinese imports, Labour's leadership seems content to continue the Conservative's pattern of prioritising cheap money in the short-term over long-term national and economic resilience.

Starmer and Reeves risk repeating the sorry mistake of every shade of Tory government over the past 14 years: they think they can have it all and hope that no one will notice.

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Reeves' current trajectory suggests Labour is at best offering a slightly kinder version of the status quo. That’s not just bad news for Anas Sarwar, but bad news for Scots of all political persuasions.

False promises

On Monday, Donald Trump will become the first US President since Grover Cleveland to be sworn in for a second non-consecutive term. As we enter a new era of international geopolitics where economies are interconnected as never before, the Chancellor’s visit to China and Starmer’s insistence on staying outside the EU single market leaves the UK more vulnerable than at any time in the post-war era.

It's fair to say that nobody expected Starmer’s relatively young ministry to have turned around 14 years of Tory failure in six months, Labour’s false promises have caught up with them faster than even their harshest critics might have predicted.

The Holyrood elections are still over a year away and there is plenty of work to be done, but the sense of buyer’s remorse in Labour is palpable.

Stephen Gethins is the MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

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