As SNP crisis continues, party insiders are sensing their independence dream has died – Murdo Fraser

When Liz Truss became Conservative party leader and Prime Minister last year, one tabloid newspaper developed a running gag as to whether she would last longer than a lettuce.

As we now know, the lettuce was still edible after Ms Truss departed the scene. I wonder if the greengrocers in Humza Yousaf’s home community of Broughty Ferry are conducting a similar experiment with his ill-fated leadership?

It is almost possible to feel sorry for the new First Minister who has been dealt a shocking hand of cards for the start of his period in office. Having won the SNP leadership by the narrowest of margins – despite his main rival’s ‘slash and burn’ approach to Nicola Sturgeon’s legacy – he might reasonably have expected a honeymoon period as the Scottish voters came to know him. Instead, he stands in the ruins of a burning house.

Operation Branchform, the police investigation into what happened to the £600,000 of donations for the next independence referendum which were supposed to be ring-fenced, has blown up the SNP and the former First Minister’s reputation. The pictures of the police tent on the front lawn of Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell’s home cannot be unseen. Nor can the extraordinary sight of £110,000-worth of top-of-the-range campervan being towed away from the home of Murrell’s elderly mother.

The list of unanswered questions grows ever longer. What did happen to the £600,000? Why did Murrell lend the SNP £107,000 from his personal resources? Is it really credible that his wife knew nothing of this transaction?

Why was Nicola Sturgeon reportedly telling party activists there was no problem with SNP finances? Why did the resignation of Douglas Chapman MP as party treasurer not set alarm bells ringing at the time and merit a thorough investigation? Why now have Johnston and Carmichael quit as the SNP’s auditors, and who will replace them?

Perhaps most important of all, is it really credible that the timing of the former First Minister’s resignation was unconnected to the police inquiry into the SNP finances, as she claims? It is hard to see how she could possibly have survived in office after a police officer was reportedly spotted prodding the ground in her back garden with a spade. Did she know what was coming, and made a swift exit, despite saying just weeks before that that she still had “plenty left in the tank”? The whole thing stinks more than a skip full of rotting lettuce under the Portuguese sun.

At the time of the leadership contest, wearing the mantle of the ‘continuity candidate’ looked like a major advantage for Yousaf. He was heavily backed by the party establishment from John Swinney downwards, by a host of MPs and MSPs, and even by Sturgeon’s former chief of staff. Those endorsements don’t look like such assets now.

It is almost possible to feel sorry for Humza Yousaf over the shocking hand of cards he has been dealt, says Murdo Fraser (Picture: Russell Cheyne/pool/Getty Images)

For years, the SNP have made the case for Scottish separation partly on the grounds of supposed Scottish moral superiority. “Look at that lot down in Westminster”, they would say, “with their lies, sleaze and corruption. We are better than them – it’s time to break away.” It was a message that, at one time, had a certain resonance.

Not any more. We now have not one, but two, former SNP First Ministers whose periods in office are clouded with accusations of scandal which have led to police investigations. To paraphrase the old joke, there are as many former SNP First Minsters with reputations in the gutter as there are giant pandas in Scotland. So much for moral superiority.

Where does this leave the hapless Yousaf? The start of his leadership is equivalent to being promoted to the captaincy of the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. Even the SNP president Michael Russell has damned him with faint praise, with the words “The King is dead, long live the King. That’s the way it’s got to be.” Not exactly the ringing endorsement the new leader might expect from the epitome of the man in a grey kilt.

There is no sign of a honeymoon bounce for Yousaf, with his already negative personal ratings likely to slip still further. Polls suggest that the SNP is shedding support to both the Scottish Conservatives and Labour.

It is remarkable to think that only two months ago there was a serious discussion as to whether the SNP might achieve more than 50 per cent of the popular vote in the next general election by treating it as a de-facto referendum on independence. Latest polling puts them well adrift of that target, and slipping fast. No wonder Russell has said “I don’t think independence can be secured right now”. Even amongst the strongest enthusiasts for separation, there is a real sense that it is all over.

Can Yousaf even survive the next few weeks? Will the tide of events sweep him away, as SNP members realise the horrible error they made in electing the continuity candidate of a regime now exposed as duplicitous, corrupt, and potentially criminal? And will they now turn to Kate Forbes, secure in her Highland fastness, as the saviour who can rescue them and their party from the almighty mess that they find themselves in?

It is still just two weeks since Humza Yousaf became First Minister, but what a torrid fortnight it has been. Holyrood returns next week after the Easter recess with the opposition parties having a spring in their step, and scenting blood. But will the lettuces in the parliamentary canteen still be within their ‘best before’ dates?

Murdo Fraser is a Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife