Frontline officers will be cut from April without extra funding in grim warning from Police Scotland

Hundreds of frontline officers could be axed over the next six months as Police Scotland warned it could be forced to make widespread compulsory redundancies due to looming budget cuts.​

The force warned it faced having to cut 800 officers and staff by April next year, with the prospect that overall numbers could fall by more than 2,000 over the next four years if budgets are not increased.

The Scottish Fire and Rescue Service (SFRS) separately said it may have to take 18 fire appliances off the road as a result of financial pressures, with chief officer Ross Haggart raising fears about the impact this could have on community safety.

Opposition parties described the proposed cuts as “alarming”, with Conservative justice spokesman Russell Findlay saying: "This SNP's undermining of Police Scotland has to stop. Public safety is at stake."

A general view at Tulliallan police college showing the latest batch of new recruits during their passing out parade. Picture: PA

The grim warnings were delivered as senior figures from both the police and fire service appeared before Holyrood's criminal justice committee yesterday.

And they came little more than a week after Police Scotland confirmed a new project was being trialled in the north-east that would see some minor crimes such as garden thefts no longer investigated.

With the focus of discussions on the budget for 2024/25, both emergency services issued a stark warning on what may happen unless more money is made available.

David Page, Police Scotland's deputy chief officer, told MSPs the force would have to cut 600 officers and 200 staff by April 1 if it was given a flat-cash budget settlement.

Police Scotland has indicated it may have to cut up to 800 officers and staff by April next year. Picture: Police Scotland

But he said: "We actually can't do that, because we don't have enough levers to pull.

"Even if we stopped all the probationer intake in December and the probationer intake in March, it would not get us down to the number we need to do.

"So we would be looking to other mechanisms, like voluntary redundancy, potentially coming to the Government and seeking compulsory redundancy."

Police Scotland has already cut officer numbers from 17,234 to 16,600 in 2023/24 – a 3.7 per cent reduction.

But a paper submitted by the force shows its initial analysis of a flat-cash settlement – where money is not increased – for 2024/25 would mean it needs to make savings of £50 million next year, leading to cuts in numbers by April.

Looking ahead over the period 2024/25 to 2027/28, the paper warned: "For policing in Scotland to operate within a flat-cash funding allocation, £140m of recurring savings would be required to accumulate over this period.

"Pay award assumptions alone would require a 2,070 FTE reduction over the next four years, the equivalent of a 9.3 per cent workforce reduction."

Mr Page said the financial situation meant he could not guarantee body-worn cameras for police officers would be rolled out next year, though he said Police Scotland was doing its "utmost" to ensure it goes ahead.

Mr Haggart warned MSPs the SFRS could have to make savings of between £14m and £26m next year alone, adding that by 2026/27, this could rise to £37m-£48m.

He said: "There's very little scope for us to make significant savings without reducing firefighter and specifically whole-time firefighter numbers. If we were to have to reduce our firefighter numbers to the extent our modelling suggests, then we do not believe this could be achieved without impacting upon the safety of the communities we are here to serve."

He said if the service had to make a "conservative" £14m of savings next year, "that would equate to 339 whole-time firefighters".

Mr Haggart told MSPs: "Those firefighters would equate to 18 appliances that we would not have the ability to crew because of a reduced firefighter number.

"We have got 116 full-time appliances across Scotland, so quite a significant proportion of our appliances we would no longer be able to crew.

"Changes of that magnitude, we would not be able to meet our current response times and things like that, which would mean we would not be able to keep communities as safe as they currently are because of the magnitude of the changes we would need to make."

Mr Findlay said: "Just a week after Humza Yousaf promised to deliver bodycams for our police, a senior police official has cast doubt on his pledge. Officers in the rest of the UK already have this essential kit, yet police in Scotland may have to wait even longer due to SNP funding cuts."

Mr Findlay said of the projected fall in police numbers: "Losing a further 2,000 officers would decimate Police Scotland's ability to tackle crime, yet that figure could prove an underestimate if the SNP's funding projections come to fruition.”

Labour justice spokesperson Pauline McNeill meanwhile said: "If the SNP do not listen to the shocking evidence the criminal justice committee heard this morning, they will be presiding over devastating police officer and staff cuts and undermining the ability of our police and fire services to keep our communities safe.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “No budget has been set for 2024/25, but, despite ongoing difficult financial circumstances due to UK Government austerity, we have continued to prioritise frontline services.

“The current budget allocated almost £3.4 billion to the justice system, delivering an additional £80m resource budget for policing and an increase of £14.4m for firefighting compared to the previous year. Fair pay deals have also been delivered for police officers and firefighters, and we continue to have more firefighters and police officers per capita than the rest of mainland UK.”