Analysis: Two stories - and neither of them is good for Scotland

As the effects of the UK government's austerity regime kick in, people are losing jobs and vital state support at a time of rising household bills.

So of course more Scots are going bust. Except it's not that simple, because within the figures are two quite different stories.

The first tells us that relatively affluent Scots are increasingly at the heart of the debt crisis.

This is evident in the 51 per cent rise in the number protected trust deeds (PTDs) taken out in the last quarter.

PTDs, which have fewer restrictions than other forms of insolvency, are typically used by homeowners with assets. Around three in four Scots taking out PTDs earn more than 1,000 a month, Accountant in Bankruptcy figures show.

We're talking about middle income households with long-standing debts they can no longer control.

Many would previously have used credit cards to stay afloat, but in the post-credit crunch era are having their credit capped or stopped altogether. As new R3 research shows, thousands of Scots are instead turning to expensive payday loans, only to spiral deeper into debt when they are unable repay them.

Fergus Ewing, the enterprise minister, attributed the 25 per cent spike to the new Certificate for Sequestration, aimed at people needing debt relief who previously didn't qualify.

But take out PTDs, and the number of personal insolvencies in the last quarter actually fell.

So the second story is of low interest rates acting as the sole barrier preventing thousands being tipped over the edge.

Any interest rate rise, which may well come when public sector job cuts are accelerating, will send thousands of indebted Scots over that edge.

Mr Ewing said was "encouraged" by the 1 per cent year-on-year drop in insolvencies, but if he really believes the debt crisis in Scotland is easing, I strongly recommend he asks what Citizens Advice thinks.