SNP told by think-tank to cut teachers to save £500 million a year

Cutting teacher numbers in line with falling school rolls could save the Scottish Government about £500 million a year by 2040, a think-tank has said.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) highlighted the savings that could be made, as the organisation estimated the number of young people in school will fall 12.5 per cent over the next 15 years.

The recommendation comes as the Scottish Government is about to give councils £186.5m to try to replace 621 teaching posts that were axed in schools last year.

The SNP also remains committed to a 2021 promise that it would recruit an additional 3,500 teachers by 2026, although no progress has been made on achieving this target.

Teacher numbers have been falling in Scotland | PA

Teaching unions say allowing teacher numbers to fall “lacks any educational rationale”, particularly at a time of soaring school violence and increasing numbers of pupils with additional support needs.

However, the IFS said significant savings could be made by keeping teacher numbers in line with pupils, which could then be used to support other areas in need of money, such as social care, as local authorities face “an increasingly tight funding environment”.

It calculated day-to-day school spending in Scotland had increased 27 per cent since 2015 and was at £10,000 a year per pupil, the highest in the UK, and 20 per cent more than in England.

Meanwhile, class sizes are lower in Scotland, with an average of around 13-14 pupils per teacher, compared to the rest of the UK at 17-19 pupils per teacher.

Class sizes in Scotland are expected to fall to just 12 by 2040 if current teacher numbers are maintained, the lowest point in recent history.

The IFS warned the Government that a “one-size-fits-all” approach to teacher numbers may not work, particularly in rural and island schools. But it said: “Given both the financial context and concerns about declining school standards in Scotland, it will be vital to maximise the value for money of school spending.

“Allowing teacher numbers to fall in line with pupil numbers would instead release funding that could be used for other priorities. This would be small in the short run, about £65m–120m by 2027, but could amount to an annual saving of £500m in today’s terms by 2040.

“At the same time, policymakers face challenges from rising levels of additional needs, new teachers struggling to find jobs, recruitment shortfalls for secondary teachers, and over-recruitment of primary teachers.”

Darcey Snape, a research economist at the IFS and an author of the report, said: “With class sizes already low in Scotland, cutting teacher numbers in line with the projected fall in pupil numbers could in principle free up funds for spending elsewhere, for schools or other areas of council budgets.

“These savings may be particularly valuable in the context of what looks like a tight financial outlook over the coming years for both the Scottish Government and Scottish councils.

“The evidence also suggests that smaller class sizes only tend to have modest effects on pupil attainment, suggesting that if improving attainment is the Scottish Government’s priority, further reductions in class sizes may not be the most cost-effective way of doing so.

“There would inevitably be practical difficulties associated with reducing the number of teachers as pupil numbers fall – such as amalgamating classes and schools.

“However, arguably, local councils are best placed to make decisions over school and teacher numbers in their areas, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach across Scotland.

“The Scottish Government could then focus on engaging with councils to ensure that training and recruitment of teachers better align with locally identified needs and on ways to improve the quality of teaching and learning across Scotland.”

A spokesperson for the Educational Institute of Scotland, the nation’s largest teaching union, said: “The Scottish Government has rightly prioritised the ending of child poverty and both increased investment in education is a key part in the realisation of that goal.

“Increased investment is required to tackle the challenges facing the Scottish education system and this includes both the recruitment and retention of teachers. The working lives of teachers are already impacted by the highest levels of pupils with additional support needs on record, rising levels of violence and aggression in schools and unsustainable workload.

“Increased resourcing is key to addressing these issues and there is no more important resource in education than teachers themselves.”

Scottish Liberal Democrat education spokesperson Willie Rennie said: “The Scottish Government have made a complete pig’s ear of workforce planning for teachers.

“Too many good teachers are stuck on supply lists or short-term contracts, unable to find permanent employment. At the same time, there is a shortage of teachers in more rural parts of the country and in key subjects like sciences and languages.

“Education has become the SNP’s flagship failure. That’s why we need a change of government to get Scottish education back to its best.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “The Education Secretary has been clear that the Scottish Government is determined to continue to drive improvements in our schools. Teachers will play a central role in these efforts and ministers would not support any suggestions that teacher numbers should be cut.

“That is why we are increasing funding for local authorities to £186.5m this year, as part of an agreement with Cosla to restore teacher numbers to 2023 levels, freeze learning hours and make meaningful progress to reduce class contact time.

“We are also delivering a package of £28m to employ more specialist staff and teachers to support additional support needs in schools and a further £1m to support national initiatives to help recruit and train more ASN teachers.”