Exclusive:Revealed: How a post-Covid divide means exam pass rates are falling in the north but rising in Central Belt

A divergence in exam performance is emerging between northern Scotland and much of the Central Belt in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, it can be revealed.

An analysis by The Scotsman has found exam pass rates at National 5 and Higher have fallen since the coronavirus crisis in areas such as the islands and Moray, as well as Aberdeen City, Highland and some other more rural areas.

In contrast, the proportion of pupils gaining A, B and C grades has improved since 2019 in the likes of Glasgow City, Clackmannanshire, East Dunbartonshire, North Ayrshire, Renfrewshire, South Ayrshire, and South Lanarkshire. Results have remained stable, meanwhile, at several other major council areas, including Edinburgh City, Fife, and Perth and Kinross.

Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth is poised to hold talks with local authority chiefs after highlighting “wide variations” in the exam results published by the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) last week.

Experts say the figures for 2024 are the first that can be used for valid comparisons to 2019 because of the disruption caused to learning during the pandemic, with the closure of schools and the cancellation of exams in 2020 and 2021, followed by the use of a “generous” and then “sensitive” grading approach in 2022 and 2023.

At Higher level, Shetland Islands Council was the local authority to record the largest drop in the proportion of pupils getting an A, B or C grade between 2019 and 2024, down by 7.9 percentage points.

A spokeswoman for Shetland Islands Council said: “Officers will be working with head teachers when the schools return from their summer break to fully analyse the figures.”

The next biggest fall was in Moray, which was 6.6 points lower in 2024 than 2019, followed by the Western Isles with a 6.1-point decline, and Orkney Islands, which was down by 5.2 points.

Moray Council recorded the most substantial fall at National 5 level, plummeting by 7.1 points, significantly more than the next highest, which was Midlothian, down by 3.8 points, followed by Aberdeen City and Argyll and Bute, where the pass rate has fallen by 3.7 points in both.

Aberdeen City’s pass rate at Advanced Higher in 2024 was 13.3 points lower than in 2019, meanwhile, and it was also down at Higher, by 3.4 points.

The other councils which experienced decreases at all three of these levels - National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher - were Falkirk, Highland, Moray, North Lanarkshire, Orkney Islands, Scottish Borders, Shetland Islands, West Dunbartonshire and West Lothian.

The Advanced Higher figures for Dumfries and Galloway and the Western Isles could not be compared, but both were down at National 5 and Higher.

Across Scotland, the overall pass rate in 2024 at Higher and National 5 was similar to 2019, but it dropped by 4.1 percentage points at Advanced Higher, in part due to a significant rise in the number of pupils sitting the qualification.

The only councils to post improvements at all three of these levels between 2019 and 2024, including Advanced Higher, were North Ayrshire and Renfrewshire.

However, excluding Advanced Higher, an increase in pass rates at both National 5 and Higher was found at Glasgow City, where the proportion increased by 2.3 points and 2.6 points respectively, as well as at Clackmannanshire, East Dunbartonshire, South Ayrshire, and South Lanarkshire.

Lindsay Paterson, emeritus professor of education policy at the University of Edinburgh, said: “I wonder if there might be two distinct things going on.

“One is council areas that are affluent - for example East Renfrewshire, East Dunbartonshire - and affluent families have perhaps been better able to recover educationally from Covid.

“But the other is some urban areas' paying particular policy attention to socially deprived areas.

“In particular, Glasgow has in several respects seen a steady improvement in other indicators in recent years.

“Perhaps the focus on deprivation has been less concentrated elsewhere: it is well-known that the Scottish Government approach neglects deprived children in generally affluent areas, and neglects deprived pupils in rural areas.”

A spokesperson for Moray Council highlighted the local impact of the RAAC crisis.

“We acknowledge a drop in pass rates this year compared to pre-pandemic levels, particularly at National 5, Higher, and Advanced Higher. This trend is seen elsewhere too, and we recognise the unique challenges we face as a rural authority,” she said.

“Despite this, there are positive outcomes: 75 young people achieved six ‘A’ grades at National 5, 34 pupils earned seven or more ‘A’ grades, and 26 S5 pupils secured five or more ‘A’ grades at Higher, marking the second-highest performance in recent years. 

“Additionally, over 140 S6 students chose to study at Advanced Higher level, resulting in over 220 Advanced Higher passes, with some achieving top grades, including one pupil who completed five Advanced Highers this year.”

The spokesperson added: “It's important to note that some of our schools faced significant disruptions last session, including a partial closure due to RAAC and staffing challenges, which have put pressure on certain subjects.

“In the face of these disruptions, our young people and staff have shown remarkable resilience and determination to achieve the very best that they can.

“In terms of Attainment Scotland Funding, while Moray hasn't received the same level of deprivation-related investment as some Central Belt areas in the past, we now receive Strategic Equity Funding (SEF), and we’re committed to using this to tackle the poverty-related attainment gap and strengthen pupil engagement in learning. 

“In the coming weeks, we’ll be working closely with head teachers to analyse results, understand unique school circumstances, and drive consistent improvement in attainment.”

Councillor Christina Cannon, Glasgow’s city convener for education and early years, said: “The good news for Glasgow’s young people is the overall attainment and achievement continues to make steady progress and up across all indicators compared to our 2019 exam results – and the first post Covid exam results without any modifications.

“Highlights include five-plus Highers at S5 – from 11.9 per cent in 2019 to 14.5 per cent in 2024, and five-plus Highers at S6 in 2019 at 23.9 per cent rising to 27.2 cent this year.”  

There were mixed fortunes at some other councils, with Aberdeenshire down 0.5 points at Higher but up 2.5 points at National 5, while the pass rate in Dundee fell at Higher by 2.8 points, but had not changed at National 5.

Concerns have been raised about schools improving pass rates by not presenting as many pupils in some subjects, with only those likely to pass being encouraged to sit a course.

While this is possible in some subjects, the overall number of pupils being entered into courses such as National 5 and Higher was up at many councils where the performance improved, including Glasgow and North Ayrshire, as well as those going in the other direction, such as Aberdeen and Moray.

An Aberdeen City Council spokesperson said: “We are proud of the achievements of our young people.  The figures are partly attributed to more ambitious presentations and a far higher number of presentations, which has been deliberate to maximise achievement for our young people. 

“National 5s, Highers and Advanced Highers form only part of the attainment picture for young people in Aberdeen.  The number of wider course success is expected to have increased significantly when data for passes in Foundation Apprenticeships, National Progression Awards and Skills for Work courses in addition to the National Qualifications at L2-4 (Nat 2-Nat4) becomes available in mid-September.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “We know that Covid has had a lasting impact on children and young people across Scotland, particularly those living in poverty.

“There is clearly a wide degree of variation in results between Scotland’s 32 local authorities and the Cabinet secretary for education will be meeting with all directors of education, the chief examiner and the interim chief inspector to consider how the Scottish Government can work with councils to drive improvement in our schools. That discussion will consider all of the factors causing the variation between councils.

“Urban/rural comparisons of attainment have historically been more variable over time than other equalities categories. In general, however, where one group had higher attainment than another historically, this remained the case in 2024.”