Here's what I learned from the accounts of Scotland's private schools ahead of Labour's VAT raid
If the opinion polls are correct, and there is no reason to doubt them, then the majority of Scots are supportive of Labour’s decision to end the VAT exemption previously enjoyed by private schools.
It is easy to understand why. Private schools are seen by many to be bastions of the class system, perpetuating the privilege of an elite who are able to simply buy a better education and connections, and therefore, employment prospects, for their offspring.
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Hide AdWhy should they enjoy tax breaks, when the state schools used by the vast majority desperately need investment? On the surface, it is a ‘no-brainer’ of a policy for Labour.


However, there is always a risk of unintended consequences with these things. The main uncertainty has always been what impact it will have on the choices of parents.
Supporters of the policy point out that fees have been rising steadily at many Scottish private schools for some time, with no exodus of pupils.
It does seem likely that most parents will shoulder a further hike, even of 20 per cent. For the most wealthy, of course, it will hardly register.
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Hide AdBut for some families it will be the final straw. This may include, for example, parents of pupils with additional support needs who have made significant sacrifices to get the help for their children they do not see available in council-run schools.
Scottish private schools, for their part, have repeatedly warned they do not have the resources to easily absorb the 20 per cent tax, making it more likely much of it will be passed on to parents.


It sounded like bluster, particularly when some of these institutions have revenues approaching £80 million and estates worth £15m.
But last week The Scotsman went through the latest published accounts of every private school in the nation.
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Hide AdThe accounts show the vast majority were in deficit, many to the tune of six or seven figures, long before the introduction of VAT. These losses do not tell the entire story, but it is clear a downturn in pupil numbers will leave some schools in a perilous position. Further closures seem unavoidable.
The demise of entire schools will only increase the chances of a larger number of families seeking places in state schools. These pressures are likely to be particularly acute in “pinch-points”, namely specific schools and age groups.
To date, councils have publicly given the impression they are not overly concerned. But emails published by The Scotsman yesterday show some officials privately fear “real challenges”.
This is already leading to changes to school admissions policies, and it is not too far fetched to imagine some cash-strapped councils having to soon plan for building extensions or controversial rezoning exercises, with potential implications for house prices, as experts have previously warned.
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Hide AdThen there are the additional teachers who may be looking for work in a state sector that is already “over saturated”, with job adverts attracting hundreds of jobs in some areas.
These potential consequences may not ultimately undermine the public’s backing for a policy that is expected to raise £1.6 billion per year across the UK, and up to £160m in Scotland, for reinvestment in state education.
But when the dust settles and the full costs and complications have emerged, that support might not be as clear cut.
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