A new dawn or more cuts and controversy? A look ahead at what 2024 could have in store for Scottish education

Difficult decisions ahead to end the ‘paralysis’ preventing progress

In a speech not long before Christmas, Education Secretary Jenny Girluth declared: “I believe that Scotland is at an educational juncture.”

She was correct, but the truth is that the nation has been stuck at that crossroads for a while, often appearing unsure of which way to turn.

In 2024, however, the country and its decision-makers will have to finally decide on the path they are going to take, on a range of significant issues.

Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth

Ms Gilruth signalled in her speech that she would attempt to “plot a pragmatic route forward”. It will be easier said than done.

The Scotsman has taken a look at some of the key challenges and opportunities ahead for Scottish education over the next 12 months.

Pupil behaviour and support for teachers

There are many issues to be tackled in Scottish education in 2024 but arguably the most pressing is action to address a deterioration in pupil behaviour since the pandemic.

Parents across the nation are beset by worries about the safety of their children in local schools, as are the staff who have to deal with it.

Ms Gilruth appeared taken aback by the level of criticism she received at the end of November when the main proposal in her action plan to address the problem was a promise to produce a further “action plan” in the future.

When it eventually emerges, some measures will be relatively straight-forward to deliver, such as clearer guidance on exclusions policy and the recording of incidents.

Ultimately, however, making any kind of significant difference may come down to investment in staff.

Recently updated figures show 36.7 per cent of pupils in Scotland now have additional support needs, with the number almost doubling in the last decade, leading to calls for more support staff, as well as teachers.

The Scottish Government has manifesto commitments to reduce teacher class contact time and to recruit 3,500 additional teachers and classroom assistants during this parliament.

But despite investment, the number of teachers has been falling rather than rising in the last two years.

Reform of structures, curriculum and qualifications

Two things are almost guaranteed in Scottish education over the coming year – there will some fairly significant reforms outlined, and not everyone will be pleased about it.

Ms Gilruth has spent her first nine months in post attempting to “knit together a narrative linking” the “plethora of different reports” which had been commissioned by her predecessors.

There have been so many reports, and so many recommendations, that the effect has been to leave the system “paralysed”.

However, the Government has promised to bring forward legislation in 2024 for the replacement of the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) and a new approach to school inspecting.

Ms Gilruth has been clear that she delayed the proposals previously because she was not happy with where they were at. She will soon need to spell out what has changed, as well as reassuring sceptics that the process is not an expensive badge-changing exercise.

The Cabinet secretary will also need to explain how it fits with the Government’s plan for a new “Centre for Teaching Excellence”, which was a surprise announcement at the SNP’s autumn conference.

Curriculum for Excellence, meanwhile, has been under fire since Scotland recorded its worst ever results in the OECD’s Pisa tests of reading, science and maths.

In response, the Government said a “curriculum improvement cycle” would begin in 2024, with maths to be a “central focus” and the first area to be revamped, followed by literacy and English.

The state of Scottish education will come under the spotlight again in August, when the SQA exam results are published, with pass rates likely to return close to pre-pandemic levels for the first time following the end to recent “generous” and “sensitive” approaches to grading.

Much focus will be on the poverty-related attainment gap, which has been widening.

By that point, it could be the beginning of the end for the current qualifications system in Scotland, with a debate and decision expected early in 2024 on proposals in the Hayward review, which include ending exams for pupils in S4 and introducing a Scottish Diploma of Achievement.

The blueprint has the broad backing from the teaching unions, school leaders and education directors, but there are also many voices on the other side of the debate expressing alarm.

Ms Gilruth has been clear she does not want to add to the “extraordinary pressures” faced by teachers, and has hinted at trying to find a middle ground.

Uncertain future for colleges and universities

In recent years, the narrative around the nation’s further and higher education institutions has been dominated by financial concerns and industrial action, and that is likely to continue in 2024.

A marking and assessment boycott in universities across the UK caused misery for thousands of students in 2023, and the UCU trade union is currently consulting members of what “actions and steps they want to take next”.

The coming year could feature further calls for the reintroduction of tuition fees for some Scottish students, as universities struggle to balance fresh cuts with an increasing reliance on fees from international students. Meanwhile, higher education is braced for a negative impact from tighter UK immigration rules.

For Scotland’s colleges, the financial pressures are even more acute.

Funding cuts over several years have left the sector in a parlous position, and staff increasingly feel abandoned by a Government which was happy to step in with extra money to end industrial action in schools, but has shown no sign of doing the same for further education.

The Scottish Government has plans for a huge overhaul of the way further and higher education is funded, with a new body proposed to replace the Scottish Funding Council, the Student Awards Agency Scotland and, potentially Skills Development Scotland.

It remains to be seen what progress can be made towards these reforms in 2024.