Edinburgh and Glasgow to be among fastest-growing UK locations as country emerges from recession in H2

Edinburgh and Glasgow are set to see their economies rank amongst the fastest growing in the UK as the country emerges from recession in the second half of this year, according to a new study.

Law firm Irwin Mitchell, which has an office on Glasgow’s West Regent Street, has revealed its latest City Tracker that has been produced by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) and examines 50 UK locations, forecasting growth in terms of gross value added (GVA) and employment.

The report, which estimates that the UK entered into a recession in the second half of 2022, expects economic growth to resume in the latter six months of this year. It has calculated that Edinburgh’s economy will be 1.1 per cent larger in the last quarter of 2023 than in the same period 12 months previously, ranking fifth-highest in the UK, with the Scottish capital also expected to be in the top ten for job-creation with employment levels rising by 1.6 per cent, taking headcount to 371,200.

Irwin Mitchell also said Glasgow comes eighth in the table for GVA growth, with a 0.8 per cent year-on-year increase expected in the final quarter of 2023, growing its economy to £23.5 billion. However, the report predicts a tough year for Aberdeen, saying GVA in the Granite City is expected to fall at the end of this year by 0.2 per cent to £16.7bn, although it is expected to see year-on-year employment growth of 0.7 per cent.

Edinburgh’s economy will be 1.1 per cent larger year on year in the fourth quarter of 2023, the report has calculated. Picture: Ian Georgeson Photography.

Josie Dent, managing economist at Cebr, said: “2023 will be a difficult year for consumers and businesses across Scotland, with the cost-of-living crisis expected to lead to falling economic activity. However, Cebr forecasts that economic growth will resume in the second half of 2023, with most cities expected to see an annual expansion in GVA by Q4 2023.”

Charlotte Rees-John, partner and head of Irwin Mitchell’s consumer sector, said all businesses “irrespective of the sector they are in and the pressures that they are facing” need to consider their longer-term aspirations, such as the transition to carbon net zero. Environmental, social and governance “is fast becoming a priority for the majority, particularly at a time when there is huge pressure and scrutiny from consumers and investors”, she added.