Bridge - The Scotsman 25/05/13

WHEN there are two possible lines of play you must choose which one to adopt, based on two things: your knowledge of percentages, and whatever you can discover about opponents’ hands.

North led the two of clubs against West’s 4S contract. South won the ace and played ace, king and another spade, preventing a heart ruff in dummy. North discarded a diamond on the third spade. How would you plan the play?

You have nine tricks: three spades, ace-king of hearts and four diamonds. The heart finesse is a 50-50 shot for a tenth, but there is no rush to take it. Start by looking for an extra trick in clubs. The play to trick one suggests that North has the king, and if he has just three clubs you can establish the queen with two ruffs. Win the queen of spades and ruff a club, cross to a diamond and ruff another club. Everybody follows, but the king does not appear. When you cash the remaining diamonds South shows out on the second round. He discards two hearts and a club, and on the fourth diamond North discards a heart. You have reached this ending:

South has shown up with three spades, one diamond and four clubs, therefore five hearts. North’s original distribution was 2-3-4-4. To keep the king of clubs he has come down to two hearts Since South started with five hearts he is more likely to have the queen, so you may be tempted to finesse, as Josephine Culbertson did in 1937. Before you do, consider South’s hand: with AKx/ Qxxxx/ x/ Axxx would he not overcall 1H? This tips the odds in favour of the squeeze – bash out the ace and king of hearts to drop the queen.