Some major Scottish rugby decisions are looming - and next Six Nations clash could have big say

You have to go back to 2019 for the last time Scotland lost three Six Nations games in a row and that is the fate Gregor Townsend's side will be trying to avoid when they take on Wales at Murrayfield on Saturday.

Last weekend's 16-15 defeat at Twickenham has effectively ended Scottish hopes of a title challenge, a depressingly familiar scenario for a team whose best finish in the championship since it was expanded to include Italy in 2000 has been third place.

They've achieved that high water mark on five occasions, under Ian McGeechan in 2001, Frank Hadden in 2006, Scott Johnson in 2013 and Gregor Townsend, twice, in 2018 and 2023.

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend. | SNS Group

With Ireland, France and England all vying for this year’s title, even a third place finish looks beyond this Scottish team who opened their campaign with a none too convincing win over Italy before the losses to Ireland and England.

Scotland have finished fourth four times in the last five years and it's where they currently sit in the table. It seems a scant return for such a talented group of players but there is a maddening inconsistency about this squad.

To outplay England to such an extent in the first half and still not emerge victorious from Twickenham was a case in point. The margins are fine, of course, and had Finn Russell’s last-gasp conversion attempt succeeded Scotland would have been going into the Wales game with a serious shot at the title.

As it is, it’s all about playing for the minor places as they seek to beat Wales for the third time in a row, something they last achieved between 1989 and 1991. Townsend, who has won three and lost five of his eight meetings with the Welsh as head coach, was adamant that he would have no problem lifting his players for the game at Murrayfield, despite the gut-wrenching end to the match in London. “I think it will be not too difficult because we asked them to show who we are as a team [against England] and I believe we did that,” said the coach.

Wales sit bottom of the table after three rounds with only a solitary losing bonus point in the bank but their performance in the 27-18 defeat by Ireland last weekend was streets ahead of what they showed in the opening losses to France and Italy. Wales in the post-Warren Gatland world seem a far more creative and vibrant force and that’s testament to the work done by interim coach Matt Sherratt who had just four training sessions with the squad before facing the Irish.

“They're not to be underestimated,” warned Kyle Rowe, the Scotland winger.

Having said all that, it was Wales’ 15th successive Test match defeat and anything other than a home win in Edinburgh on Saturday would likely have consequences that go beyond where Scotland finish in the table.

Townsend will soon enter the final year of his contract. He is already the longest serving Scotland coach and the match at Twickenham was his 90th in charge of the national team. He has won 51 of them, the best win rate of any Scotland coach in the professional era. Thirty-eight of those matches have been in the Six Nations and his record in the championship reads: won 17, lost 17, with one game drawn.

Kyle Rowe believes Wales should not be underestimated. | SNS Group

Townsend has Scotland playing an exciting brand of rugby which has crowds flocking to Murrayfield. His sides have excelled in the Calcutta Cup while also achieving some notable victories against Australia and France. But despite all their attacking brilliance Scotland remain a mid-table team.

There is a new regime at the helm of Scottish Rugby and some big decisions are looming. Top of chief exec Alex Williamson’s in-tray is the future of Franco Smith. After leading Glasgow Warriors to the URC title, he is a man in demand and has been touted as the next boss of Leicester Tigers and Wales.

With regards to the latter vacancy, Smith stoked the fire by stating in a TV interview that he “would like to coach international rugby again”. “I think most coaches dream of it,” he added.

Smith’s Glasgow contract runs until the end of next season; Townsend’s expires in April 2026. Given that the former is the obvious successor to the latter, do Scottish Rugby now take steps to put such a plan in place?

Smith has connections to Wales. He spent a season at Newport during which time his son was born in the Principality. It is a job that will hold plenty of appeal given the sport’s status in the country and the vast scope for improvement. But the word last week was that Michael Cheika is now the front-runner to succeed Gatland as Wales’ permanent head coach.

Would the role Cheika is vacating at Leicester be as attractive to Smith? Possibly not, given his professed desire to return to Test rugby. The former Italy coach is enjoying another highly impressive season with Glasgow who are sitting second in the URC and through to the last 16 of the Investec Champions Cup. Were he prepared to stay on for one more season at Scotstoun beyond the current one, then a smooth transition could take place. But if Smith is impatient for a fresh challenge then Scottish Rugby might have to act.

It is natural for any leader who has been in power for an extended period to see his popularity wane. But Townsend, in his eighth year in charge, deserves to see his contract honoured if he can negotiate the remainder of this season’s Six Nations without mishap. That would mean giving him a crack at the 2026 championship.

Franco Smith has been linked with the Wales job. | SNS Group

In 2019, after successive defeats against Ireland, France and Wales, Scotland rescued a lacklustre campaign with a thrilling comeback at Twickenham in a match that finished 38-38. This Saturday’s game with Wales has already been labelled “must win” by Huw Jones and it's true that anything other than a home victory would heap pressure on Townsend ahead of a daunting final fixture in Paris.

Scotland took Wales apart at Murrayfield two years ago and the 35-7 victory was their biggest winning margin in the fixture. But only a point separated the sides in Cardiff last year when the Scots saw a 27-0 lead whittled down to 27-26 during an agonising second half. Townsend's side should have enough quality to ensure they make home advantage count against visitors in the midst of the worst run in Wales' history and who are ranked a lowly 12th in the world, five places below the Scots.