So You Think it’s all over?

IF YOU have been reading the racing pages of the British and Irish press, you would be entitled to conclude that there is only one question to be answered about today’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.

Will the Australian import So You Think stay the full mile-and-a-half distance of Europe’s richest race? According to the experts, if the four-year-old son of High Chaparral gets the trip then he will undoubtedly win the near £2 million prize that will take his career winnings over the £5m mark.

There’s plenty evidence that So You Think will stay every yard of the distance. He is the son of a Derby winner, he easily won the Tattersalls Gold Cup over 300 yards less of a distance, and in last year’s Melbourne Cup over two miles on soft ground, he faltered only in the final furlong. He is also trained by Aidan O’Brien, and the Irish maestro knows what it takes to train Arc winners, though perhaps surprisingly, he only has one to his name – Dylan Thomas’s win in 2007.

So given those credentials, So You Think only has to turn up to collect. But hold on a minute, there may well be a British fly in the ointment.

Last year’s winner Workforce has been overlooked by many pundits, aware of the history that says that no horse has won successive runnings of the race for 33 years, when Alleged won his second Arc under Lester Piggott.

Sir Michael Stoute trained Workforce to perfection to win last year’s race, putting the Epsom Derby winner away after his poor showing in the King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and then bringing him out ten weeks later in fabulous shape. He has done the same again this year, resting Workforce after his second place to Nathaniel in this year’s King George, and tuning him up to reach his best on Arc day when Nathaniel will be absent as he is going for the Champion Stakes.

So You Think did beat Workforce in the Coral Eclipse, but that was over two furlongs shorter. Over the Arc distance, Workforce is a proven winner, and while there has been concern over the going as he would not want it firm, Longchamp looks likely to be no harder than good.

Certainly if there is a downpour before the race, Workforce’s odds will shorten dramatically, and he is reunited with jockey Ryan Moore who has made a swift recovery from the fractured humerus he suffered at Goodwood.

The home team really fancy Sarafina, third to Workforce last year but a much improved filly. Alain De Royer-Dupre will have her in good condition, though Galikova, the three-year-old daughter of Galileo, looks a better bet receiving 8lbs in weight allowance. St Leger winner Masked Marvel has been supplemented for the race and trainer John Gosden would not waste ¤100,000 unless he was sure of a big performance.

Last year’s dual Oaks heroine Snow Fairy will need to peak if she is to win, but she will have Frankie Dettori helping her do so.

If there is to be victory by an outsider it may be an O’Brien horse – Irish Derby and Secretariat Stakes winner Treasure Beach and the four-year-old Coronation Cup winner St Nicholas Abbey look too big in the odds.

There are six other Group 1 races on the card at France’s biggest meeting of the year. All sponsored by Qatar, they include the Prix de l’Abbaye sprint at 12:45 when Prohibit ridden by Jim Crowley will be hoping to repeat his Group 1 success in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Most French interest will be in the Prix de la Foret at 2:30 when the amazing mare Goldikova will be going for a 15th Group or Grade 1 victory. Olivier Peslier will be in her saddle for the 26th time, seeking an astonishing 18th win aboard the best horse of either gender that France has produced in years.

Whatever the result, the French public will say a fond adieu to “Goldi” who will be making her last appearance in her native country before retiring to stud at the end of the season.

Workforce is the selection, with his draw in stall No. 8 a good omen as he won from there last year. An each-way investment at a general 8-1 is advised.

Not all eyes will be on Paris’s leafy boulevards today. Kelso hosts its Family Fun day this afternoon, featuring the Borders Principals race at 1:30pm.

So why not head down to the Borders, enjoy a good day’s racing over the sticks and watch the big races from Paris on the television screens dotted around the Kelso course.