Six Nations: Scottish turnaround is vital to save their tournament

Ironically, as Andy Robinson calls for cool heads and composure to turn Scotland’s fine form into the finish that garner victories, the immediacy of turning around Scotland’s Test fortunes is unmistakeable.

It is vital to maintain the feelgood aura that was beginning to enwrap the Scottish game with the departure of Gordon McKie from the chief executive’s seat at Murrayfield, the push by Glasgow among the RaboDirect PRO12 title challengers and Edinburgh into the last eight of the Heineken Cup; an aura that took a massive dent in Murrayfield last Saturday as Scotland passed up the best opportunity for years to claim the English scalp.

It is crucial to the belief of the current Scotland squad, the core of which have been toiling at the coal-face of international rugby for many years now without gaining much reward, but all too many reminders of a fallibility at the top level.

These are hard-working professionals with attitudes as good as, if not better than, any squads of the past. Yet they are suffering the monotony of great promise yielding nothing but despair.

There is real quality in this Scottish side and they have the ability to pose real problems for their Welsh opponents tomorrow, but they have to do it again from a base level of confidence jolted and in the tougher environment of a full Millennium Stadium swaying with the memory of an uplifting World Cup performance and opening Six Nations win in Ireland.

The Welsh pack is not the best in the tournament, but with prop Gethin Jenkins back and skipper Sam Warburton seemingly recovered from a dead leg, they possess an experienced eight that know how to handle themselves in this environment. As for the back-line, it could be the best in the championship, and even before we got underway last week many observers were predicting their final game with France to be the 2012 decider.

If, last week, Chris Cusiter had to work hard to convince his compatriots that Scotland were the underdogs against England, there is no such effort required this time. What will need more work is colouring in the picture that shows Scotland winning this one.

The other important reason why the squad have to find a way to turn things around quickly is because how they perform in the next few games will have a significant bearing on Scotland’s future standing in world rugby.

The next Rugby World Cup does not take place until 2015, but the IRB will make the draw in December of this year. So, where each nation sits in the world rankings at that point will determine the pot into which the seeds fall. Scotland missed out on the quarter-finals last year for the first time, because of a failure to score tries, yes, but also because they were pitched in with two nations regularly ranked above them for the first time.

Andy Robinson’s team are now 11th on that list after defeat by England last weekend and if Italy were to surprise Stuart Lancaster’s fledgling team in the sold-out Stadio Olimpico today – far from impossible – and the Scots suffer a 15-point or worse defeat in Cardiff tomorrow, which one might hope is nigh impossible, the Scots would drop to 12th.

Whether Scotland are ninth or 12th in December will not matter greatly when it comes to the draw, because outside the top eight consigns them to the third pot and another pool with two higher-ranked nations.

But the target has to be to drive up into eighth place by the end of the year and secure a place in the second pot, and that is achievable if they start winning Test matches.

Robinson welcomed the pressure on his team at the start of the championship, heading into his third with just two wins behind him and acknowledging that there was nowhere for his squad to hide after a deflating World Cup. He invested a lot in the Calcutta Cup, knowing that his players were capable of beating England.

They were capable, as they proved with a performance that was dominant for long spells of the game, but the same problem of a blunt attack inside the last third of the field reared its head again and ruined the great hope that had been generated.

Scotland have now gone four Test matches without scoring a try, and the last against a nation ranked above Scotland was Max Evans’ at Twickenham. It would not be such a problem were the team able to win games or had the game itself not changed in recent times back towards a more attack-minded one where running rugby is encouraged and more successful than game-plans dominated by the boot.

But, and let us find some hope here, this Scotland squad do have the tools to surprise a high-flying Welsh side tomorrow afternoon.

It starts up front, as always, but with Geoff Cross having been in the best form of his career with Edinburgh this season, working tightly with his Edinburgh teammates – Ross Ford and Allan Jacobsen – the front row has the ability to cause problems for Wales in the scrum.

The lineout, led by Jim Hamilton and with Richie Gray and Dave Denton great aerial threats, has the potential to make an utter mess of the Welsh lineout, and one hopes this week that Scotland seek to test that theory by kicking balls to touch rather than into the inviting arms of the back three.

And then there is the back row, with Ross Rennie taking confidence from a good game against England and being able to keep John Barclay out again, Alasdair Strokosch in fine form this season and one who relishes the biggest stages and Denton eager to improve his work at the back of the scrummage and continue to reveal his potency in attack and defence.

These are players Wales will be worrying about, and if they are not then the Scots might profit again from Welsh complacency. Chris Cusiter and Greig Laidlaw have to come together quickly, and if they can vary the attack to suit these strengths and keep the tempo high, Scotland will be very much in this game.

It is tempting to suggest that any effort to move the game near a home back division featuring the pace and power of Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Davies, George North, Alex Cuthbert and Leigh Halfpenny, never mind the big lads Rhys Priestland and Mike Phillips at half-back, could spell disaster, but a ten-man game has little place in the modern era or with this Scotland side.

The last time Wales failed to score a try against Scotland in Cardiff was, wait for it, in 1974, and even without the now-retired Shane Williams, frequent destroyer of Scots hopes, nothing in Warren Gatland’s team points to a try-less performance this weekend. So, while Scotland’s defence will need to be quick, strong and unremitting, the team know that they will have to end their try famine and cross the whitewash this weekend to claim victory.

In short, what this game hinges on for Scotland is the ability of their big players to put in big performances – the likes of Ford, Hamilton, Gray, Cusiter, Nick De Luca, Max Evans and the Lamont brothers, Sean and Rory, and the less experienced around them to hit their straps from the kick-off and execute moves and skills accurately under pressure.

It has always been thus. This year’s championship was set up with steepening challenges for Scotland – from England to Wales and then France, back at Murrayfield. But if the team can reproduce the dazzling first hour of two years ago, experience might aid their attempts to ensure there is no repeat of the hairy finale and lift the entire championship.

Wales are heavily-backed favourites, but it is against that backdrop that Scotland teams have produced their best. Robinson and Scottish rugby needs them to do so now.