Six Nations: Scots face a nervous breakdown

The Scotland team announcement took place last Wednesday afternoon at Murrayfield and it proved a tetchy affair. The mood has changed, the barometer has shifted from “fair” to “stormy” and the natives are getting restless.

Andy Robinson was put on the spot by the assembled scribblers who wanted to know, in no particular order, why Dan Parks had been picked one week before he retired from Test rugby, why Greig Laidlaw had been picked without Mike Blair to zing the ball his way and why the stand-off was the only change to a backline that apparently needs sat nav to find its own backside, never mind the opposition try line?

It was frustration as much as anything else. The Scots are used to losing but usually to good teams; only rarely do they come second to a side as ordinary as England were last Saturday. Well, Scotland won’t lose to an ordinary side today because Wales are a lot better than that.

There is an old joke from the 1995 World Cup. All Blacks’ coach Laurie Mains needs to remind his players of a few home truths in light of the fact that Jonah Lomu fills one New Zealand wing.

“You’ve got to remember that rugby is a 15-man game,” he says sternly. “So I want every one of you to pass the ball to Jonah.”

For Lomu read Wales’ 19-year-old winger George North, and if you think that comparison is a little far fetched the teenager has ten tries in his 17 Tests to date. Admittedly Lomu was up to 14 by that time but only after the giant Kiwi scored four against England in that 1995 World Cup semi-final at Newlands. It’s no surprise to learn that England inquired about King’s Lynn-born North’s allegiance before he was capped.

Scotland have scored 15 tries over the same period and, for reasons of comparison, Wales have scored 35 tries in their last 17 matches although that figure does not include the 12 that they put past Namibia in the World Cup.

Wales scored three brilliantly-executed tries in Dublin against one of the meanest defences in Europe just 24 hours after Scotland butchered any number of chances at Murrayfield. Scotland have not scored a try in 320 minutes of Test-match rugby and if the attack stutters again Robinson will be subject to even more scrutiny for not going the whole hog and drafting in the Edinburgh duo of Mike Blair and Matt Scott to play either side of Laidlaw.

Scott in particular is just what Scotland have been searching for – an intelligent, distributing second five-eighth with a wide range of skills and vision. He will play for Scotland sure as eggs is eggs, Robinson said as much last week, but the physicality of Welshmen Mike Philips and Jamie Roberts probably ensured that the more muscular duo of Chris Cusiter and Sean Lamont were retained.

When the pressure is on, coaches earn their money and Robinson needs a win this afternoon even if, perversely, a narrow loss to Wales with a couple of Scottish tries would probably count as such in the current circumstances. He’s gambling that Laidlaw’s vision alone will spark Scotland’s attack, despite Sean Lamont being something of a sleeping policeman at 12.

The elder of the Lamont brothers is the fans’ favourite and he has many admirable qualities as a rugby player but slick distribution is not chief amongst them.

He is just one square peg squeezed into a round hole because the coach has to make do and mend. If Scotland’s inside centre is really a winger in disguise then the stand-off is a genuine scrum-half with a limited kicking game (presuming Laidlaw can even see the space downfield behind the giants lined up against him). It isn’t Robinson’s fault that he has next to no options, the coach just has to paper over the cracks as best he can and get on with it.

Laidlaw will do well today, he is a natural ball player and a fierce competitor, but any head-to-head match-up across the board does not favour the Scots. If you were picking backs for the Lions’ tour to Australia today you’d take Philips, Rhys Priestland, Roberts, Leigh Halfpenny and North without a moment’s hesitation and then you’d scratch your head over James Hook, Jonathan Davies, Lee Byrne and scrum-half Lloyd Williams.

Who would you take from Scotland’s quick men? Well, if Tim Visser tightens up his defence he may be in with a chance once he’s qualified but there are precious few other candidates and no shoo-ins.

At least several of Scotland’s workmanlike forward pack will make the trip to Australia and the big men will surely win enough ball in Cardiff today but they will need to do more than just that if Scotland are to have any hope of causing an upset.

The forwards will need to boss the breakdowns like Capone did Chicago, which is why John Barclay should have started at six, because, given quick phase ball, this Welsh backline will hurt anyone.

On the basis that prevention is better than cure, the Scots must stem the flow of red possession at the sidelines because it is the only area on the field where the visitors have a clear and obvious advantage, with Wales missing three locks.

Scotland will probably settle for parity at the set scrum, since the home side field a pair of Lions props in Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins, but they can afford no less. The French referee, Romain Poite, has the patience of a New York cabbie when it comes to front-row shenanigans.

One collapsed scrum may be reset but if a second goes down (or up) he is quick to hand out penalties, cards and even penalty tries. Poite almost always awards in favour of the dominant scrum and he is usually correct. Geoff Cross tamed Jenkins in the Heineken Cup and if he can do the same again this afternoon he will have earned that No.3 jersey for the remainder of the championship.

Wales are favourites to win by 13 points but the margin could balloon if they get their tails up. A few years back Wales were dubbed “the village idiots” of world rugby by one acerbic Kiwi journalist who has since recanted. This squad have talent, power, pace, spirit and the mental strength that has not always been Wales’ forte. Scotland are no fools but they remain the paupers of world rugby in terms of playing resources.

Robinson has always wanted his team to attack with the ball in hand and, after polishing my crystal ball, the following backline might be close to the one that is called upon when the Rugby World Cup comes round in 2015: Stuart Hogg, Max Evans, Mark Bennett, Matt Scott, Tim Visser, Duncan Weir and Greig Laidlaw in his preferred No.9 shirt.

It is a relatively lightweight line but one that will play heads-up rugby and test the best defences with a mix of pace, skill and vision. The problem for Robinson is that he may need a few results to go his way if he is still going to be around to select them.