Scots must rise now or cup will fall flat in ‘Cake Tin’

The last time the teams met in this tournament they had emerged from the pool stages in 2007 in France and were vying for a semi-final place. There was a feeling, however, that Scotland had been happy to have got to the last eight and never really believed they could go further, until they had the Pumas on the rack, six points down, in the last quarter of their match. But it was too late; the Pumas clung on and a semi-final slipped away.

This time, however, it is a very different picture. Scotland have won their first two games, against Romania and Georgia, and it matters little now how they got there, while the Pumas started with defeat to England and then trounced the Romanians. Scotland and England (before their game with Romania today) have nine points, and Argentina six. Victory for Scotland means they qualify for the last eight and the Pumas play their last game with Georgia with bags packed for Buenos Aires.

If Scotland leave Wellington with no points, however, they face the prospect of having to score four tries or more in beating England at Eden Park next Saturday, to progress at England’s expense, presuming Argentina score four in overcoming Georgia.

So, a searing intensity will send both sets of players from the “Cake Tin” tunnel into one of the most eagerly-anticipated matches of the World Cup. Scotland hold the upper hand in the recent meetings between the nations, having won three of the five Test matches since the last World Cup, and all in Argentina.

But what the Argentinians have been quick to point out, and Scotland to be fair have too, is the Pumas always struggle in June from a lack of preparation, with their players flying home a week and sometimes only days before the first summer Test.

The fact that after the two-Test losses to Scotland in 2010 they went on to stuff France by 40 points underlined how much stronger Argentina can become with time together.

Their coach Santiago Phelan, whose first match as coach was the first Test win over Scotland in 2008 when he was without 12 first-choice players still in France, said: “Argentina this time is well-prepared because we have had two months working together. That’s the big difference to when we played Scotland last year and three years ago.

“So we feel at this moment that we are very well prepared and in very good condition. But we also know that Scotland are well prepared and are playing good rugby.”

Scotland coach Andy Robinson caught the Argentinian camp by surprise in selecting Ruaridh Jackson rather than Dan Parks at stand-off, and Phelan admitted that he had made minor tweaks to his game-plan as a result. His controversial selection was to recall fly-half Felipe Contepomi after injury, but shift him to inside centre for the first time since late 2008, leaving Montpellier’s Santiago Fernandez at stand-off.

In a dangerous back line he also has Marcelo Bosch of Biarritz and Stade Francais full-back Martin Rodriguez, with Gonzalo Camacho from Exeter on one flank and Leicester wing Horacio Agulla on the other.

Contepomi, who also plays for Stade Francais, did not train until yesterday to give his fractured rib cartilage as much time as possible to heal. After training, a physio spent some time unwrapping protective tape and strapping from his torso and then wrapping cling-film and ice packs around it.

The captain, who Phelan agreed was his team’s talisman, insisted he would be fit to take his place against the Scots, albeit with the help of painkillers, in what is his fourth and final World Cup.

It is a gamble by Phelan as his skipper admitted that he is in pain whenever he passes and twists. So while they have pushed the talisman back into the side, it is unlikely to improve the team’s mood if he is forced off the field early.

But it is a further indication that Argentina are throwing everything at this game in their bid to qualify for the quarter-finals.

Rory Lawson, the Scotland scrum-half, comes into the game having won all four Tests in which he has captained Scotland, but he knows he faces the biggest challenge of his international career in the “Cake Tin” tomorrow.

“I think my record starting for Scotland is relatively good and a lot has been made of me being a 100 per cent-winning captain and if we’re still talking about that next week it will be perfect.

“We’re aware that the quality within this squad now is very good and that we have big performances in us. We’re at a World Cup, we have a couple of huge games starting with Argentina, and that’s our opportunity to show it.”

Throughout the selection Robinson and his assistant coaches Gregor Townsend and Graham Steadman have made bold calls. Lawson and Jackson started together against Ireland in the warm-up win but the pair are an inexperienced duo in Test rugby – Robinson has opted against the significantly more experienced Mike Blair or Chris Cusiter with Parks.

They go up against Nicolas Vergallo and Fernandez, who have double the number of caps but are still relatively inexperienced, and how these partnerships control possession will be crucial tomorrow.

The weather is also destined to play its part in the game with the forecast last night suggesting showers, perhaps heavy, and a standard birling wind for Wellington that could play havoc with kicks. The scrum is a big battle-ground, Jim Hamilton’s contest with Patricio Albacete in the lineout important too, while the Scottish back row face a cracking arm-wrestle with the Pumas trio in the tight.

The key to the game lies with the side that dominates up front and at the breakdown. They need to turn the right balance to their play, from using their big ball-carriers to create momentum, kicks to put ball behind defences and hands to move ball. Argentina showed they could match England’s physicality and, against Romania, that they can score good tries. Scotland’s pack display against Georgia augured well for the mighty forward battle expected here tomorrow, but they need to be sharper at the breakdown and in retaining possession through phases.

Scotland also now possess a strong bench, which boasts the ability to inject fresh pace and control into the second half. If the game is tight, the likes of Parks, Blair, Nathan Hines, Richie Vernon and Simon Danielli can play a major role in avenging the 2007 defeat by putting the foot on the gas in the last 20 minutes in the way the team four years ago failed to do.

This is a different game to that one, and to the five played since, but it promises the same levels of intense excitement and pressure.