Scotland v New Zealand: Belief and execution key to Scotland staying in game

BELIEF is the key to success in sport and nowhere is the demand greater than when the black shadow associated with New Zealand hoves into view over a rugby field.

• Scotland coach Andy Robinson and his squad recognise the enormity of the task they face - a factor that might be vital in beating New Zealand and writing their chapter in Scottish rugby history Picture:Ian Georgeson

The plan for reviving Scottish rugby could realistically not have been dreamt up much better than the 18 months Andy Robinson has had to date, with a morale-boosting victory over Australia in his first autumn Test series followed by a steady improvement through the RBS Six Nations and a changing style of play to end with victory in Ireland and a tour success in Argentina. But New Zealand were always going to turn up eventually.

It could be argued that there is never a good time to face the All Blacks, but perhaps never a bad time either in the context of finding out where one's team really sits in the current world order. Scotland's rise to seventh place in the IRB World Rankings this year is worthy of widespread praise. In a nation of five million where rugby is the second-best sport, and even that could be argued, the full-time professional rugby community does not reach three figures and the finances available are stretched across two teams so tightly that they are asked to perform minor miracles to compete with teams far richer.

But when it comes to international rugby and Test matches like tonight's EMC Autumn Test opener at Murrayfield, Scotland have always played the role of the underdog, and it has not prevented some wonderful successes from being achieved.

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So far, however, this is the one fixture in the calendar dating back to the start of international rugby that Scotland have yet to win. Could that change when Murrayfield bursts into light this evening? There must certainly be more hope than there was when New Zealand pitched up in 2005, 2007 and 2008, and perhaps on several other occasions too, simply because of the growing strength and confidence evident in Robinson's current crop of players.

The average age and number of caps is not what wins games, but it plays a significant part in teams' ability to compete, and this Scottish side is maturing into that 26-29 age when athletes reach their peak.It can be seen in how John Barclay and Kelly Brown are beginning to blend their work-rate and breakdown efforts with an eagerness again to make themselves available and take the ball on in the loose; in the front row's tightness in the set-piece and growing belief that they do have a scrum that can trouble the best of packs in world rugby.

Add in the fresh talent that youngsters Richie Vernon and Richie Gray bring, the pace of Vernon off the scrum, the strength and skills in the lineout Gray offers, and the ability of both to excel in a running, off-loading game, and the team has an extra unknown quality.

Mike Blair and Dan Parks are not an overly familiar half-back combination, but both have come through difficult times in the past two years, found some equilibrium and started to push on their performances again. This is a great test of how they can mould their natural desires into a productive combination that most benefits the team.

Max Evans has never shown any fear, and backs himself against anyone, but Graeme Morrison seems to have developed a confidence that has made him more of a threat in defence and attack, and that pair's ability to defend will certainly be tested like never before by Sonny Bill Williams and Conrad Smith.

The back three is as strong a unit as Scotland have fielded in a long time, Sean Lamont recovering his form through maturity, his brother Rory just as crazy and headstrong as ever and Hugo Southwell reaching a new level of performance in a string of games with Stade Francais that offers not only good stress-relieving kicking from deep, as helpful as that will be tonight, but an ability to lead counter-attacks.

But it has to be said that many of this Scotland squad do not yet realise what they will face tonight. None has taken on a full-strength New Zealand team with Richie McCaw, Tony Woodcock, Dan Carter, Williams, Smith and Mils Muliaina at its core, and for all the praise the Scots deserve for the finish to last season, this can be expected to be several notches up in speed, intensity and physicality from the games in Dublin and Argentina.

England are a very good side but were made to look ordinary in the first half against the All Blacks last weekend, before picking up and developing some belief after the break. There is encouragement to be taken from the way England managed to stretch the All Blacks and threaten tries late on, and New Zealand legs are bound to be heavy in the last 20 tonight after three weeks of Test matches.

But to exploit that Scotland will have to play better than England did, particularly in what will be a ferocious first half-hour. With Vernon and Gray making their first starts, this is the first time this Scotland XV has played together, and the first time these players have been asked to perform at this level since June.Maintaining Test standards over 80 minutes is arguably the biggest challenge they face tonight.

Defence will be crucial, but a three-penalty win, of the kind achieved against Australia this time last year, is inconceivable with the way the game has changed in the intervening 12 months. New Zealand will not hand Scotland easy ball through kicks for two reasons. First, they now run much more ball due to the interpretation change at the breakdown. Second, they that did against Australia and England and it caused them problems.

English referee Dave Pearson is good and has been good to Scotland, so the scrums could be an area to attack the Kiwis, while Jim Hamilton, the Scots lineout controller, Gray, Vernon and Barclay are confident of earning more than a fair share of ball at the lineout, in what promises to be an enthralling contest with Brand Thorn and Sam Whitelock. In saying that, the All Blacks largely dismiss the set-piece these days, insisting they are so few that even if they go wrong they can quickly find a way back into their pattern.

And yet while we do not yet know what this Robinson-inspired Scotland side is quite capable of, we know that the Kiwis are not firing on all cylinders on this tour yet, dipped from the Tri Nations' form and have proven vulnerable.

At Twickenham last weekend, New Zealand made ten handling errors in a total of 21 turnovers, and that does not include the wayward kicks. They conceded 15 penalties - five in the scrum. England only had five scrums in the game, and four of them resulted in penalties against the All Blacks.

Where the tourists held the upper hand was at the breakdown, where when they were not forcing turnovers they picked up seven penalties. And that part of the game will again be the most crucial to the outcome this afternoon.

McCaw, Liam Messam and Kieran Read have the ability to be the best back row in world rugby, all possessing pace and good rugby ability on the hoof and all being adept at stealing ball at ruck-time. McCaw has had to adapt to the new law interpretation, and Pearson will know the All Blacks captain will play on the limit, or over it, until told otherwise. However, Barclay, Vernon and Brown have to be prepared to meet fire with fire there, and keep enough composure to exploit opportunities on the rare occasions a Kiwi is isolated.

But that goes for the entire Scotland team, who all must be prepared to battle like never before, run with aggression as attackers with ball in hand and as defenders hitting black-shirted aggressors, and working feverishly from the first minute to the last to demand possession and retain it.

Rugby has rarely changed from a handful of simple tenets, running hard and straight, passing at the right time, targeting space with hand and boot, tackling with aggression, and playing with accuracy.Only these simple basics of the game are never tested by anyone as much as they are by the masters from the Land of the Long White Cloud.

If Scotland hit high levels of performance in each of these areas, they will cause New Zealand problems and will create chances. And then we will see how far this Scotland team has come on under Robinson, by seeing how adept they are at finishing opportunities in the most suffocating and pressurised of environments.

No Scottish player has achieved victory over New Zealand in a Scotland jersey, so just as we still talk now of Gavin Hastings and the Grand Slam legends of 1990, of the 1984 squad, or GPS Macpherson's 1925 heroes, the first victory over New Zealand will bestow legendary status on every member of the team that secures it.

It is time to meet fire with fire, keep strong in body and mind, and have courage in one's convictions. The right kind of history is not made by near-things, but by complete performances, and while it is asking an immense amount of Robinson's burgeoning squad to unearth that tonight, in their first international of the season, the great excitement of sport lies in its unpredictability and not knowing just when it might come together.