Rugby World Cup 2011: Black and White

“History repeats itself, first as tragedy and then as farce”, said Karl Marx. Twenty four years ago New Zealand beat France in the final of the first ever World Cup on the very same ground. Today the two teams again meet in Auckland, only this time the encounter threatens to sidestep the tragic altogether and head straight for the farcical.

Instead of this being the culmination of six weeks of barnstorming action, most pundits expect today’s match to be a one-sided embarrassment. The game threatens the integrity of the World Cup if it proves less of a competitive finale for the hosts and more of a walk in the Eden Park. If you backed the All Blacks to win today with cold hard cash then the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power has already paid out – before the first whistle, never mind the last one.

No team has lifted the William Webb Ellis trophy after losing a match in the pool stages. France lost two. No team has beaten the All Blacks at Eden Park since 1994 when France – who else – managed the feat thanks to the “try from the ends of the earth” sparked by Philippe Saint Andre, the French coach-in-waiting who is in Auckland today. That has to be a good omen for a team which has offered little reasons to back them while taking the “scenic route” to today’s final. The game will surely outshine expectations, if only because they are so low. Various experts estimate the winning margin at 30, 40 or even 50 points but old French war horses must have one last charge left in them before several exit the international arena.

France won in New Zealand as recently as 2009 and if they can just conjure up a similar performance today no one will remember the mutiny of “the spoilt brats”, as their coach called them after a boozy session following their victorious semi-final. If they win today not one of them will buy a drink again for the rest of their days.

Twice the French have competed in a World Cup final but they remain the only one of the big five not to have walked away with the ultimate prize in world rugby and precious few reckon it’ll be third time lucky. Perhaps no one outside the confines of the French camp really believes it will happen and the worry is that, by dressing in white shirts today, the French merely lend sartorial confirmation of coach Marc Lievremont’s accusation of “cowardice” following defeat to Italy in the Six Nations.

The All Blacks deserve to win the title for the rugby that they have championed for the last four years as much as for what they have showcased over the last six weeks. This is a team that attacks with the ball in hand and neutral rugby fans the world over must hope that this World Cup is won with something more than a stonewall defence and a canny boot.

Look at the size of this All Black back line. They have banished the bashers, the straight-up-and-down runners, the men who run the “hard yards” with all the skills and vision of a telegraph pole. In their place Graham Henry is fielding a three-quarter line of relative Lilliputians who attack space, offload in heavy traffic and manipulate the most cussed of defences, pulling them out of shape before applying the coup de grace.

Of course rugby will always be a game for the strong and the direct runner and, in Ma’a Nonu, the hosts have someone who is both. When things go wrong the All Blacks can rely on their inside centre to do the simple things well, which is pretty much the template of New Zealand rugby, but even he has added other dimensions to his hard running game.

Nonu apart, the backs are all magicians. Conrad Smith remains the smartest centre in world rugby. Cory Jane boasts aerial catching skills not often seen outside Aussie Rules. The midfielder Richard Kahui is quick enough to play on the wing. Israel Dagg is the find of the tournament, a full-back who beats the first defender without any discernable effort, and Aaron Cruden is the baby-faced assassin. At just 5’ 9” tall and a rump steak under 13 stones the Kiwis’ third choice No.10 must be the slightest stand-off since Arwel Thomas danced a jig for Wales back in the amateur era but Cruden personifies these All Black backs – slight and outrageously skilled. His drop kick in the semi-final was a thing of beauty, a gentle rebuke to all those who fluffed their lines when it mattered most.

Two years ago the stand-off was diagnosed with testicular cancer which then spread to his lungs. Now fully recovered, he finds himself competing in a World Cup final. It’s quite a story and, like all the best ones, it deserves a fairytale finish. New Zealand need to silence their critics and quieten those last few remaining doubts that still reside deep within their own souls.

France need to finish with a flourish the like of which they have only rarely produced in this tournament to date.

In short, the All Blacks need to win and France need to keep the score respectable, so that is what will probably happen.