Surely Scotland can dare to dream that our France trip will be Grand Slam decider

Scotland’s second half against Australia was exhilarating after a first one in which the Australian attack was blunted and the Scottish forwards took control of the game. Nevertheless, Gregor Townsend maintains that the South African match which we lost, and in which the only try we seemed to have scored was disallowed, was a better performance. Yet I see his point. South Africa are a better team than Australia and we ran them much closer than the final score suggested.

Whether you agree with Townsend's assessment or not, these November internationals have one wondering just where Scotland now rank. One obvious answer is “just where we were” with a team playing skilful, intelligent and often lovely rugby, but still ranking behind South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, France – and perhaps even England despite their inability to win close matches this month.

The real test will come in next year’s Six Nations, and to pass it we must surely win four matches. That means beating two out of Ireland, France and England; a tough order. We have three games at Murrayfield, and this usually, even in less ambitious years, gives us a reasonable expectation of finishing respectably in the middle of the table. But that certainly won't be enough for the most talented and best drilled team we have had in the professional era.

Finn Russell dots down for Scotland in the 27-13 win over Australia. | SNS Group / SRU

Encouragingly, and one should say remarkably, this isn't just how we see it. A panel of journalists were invited earlier this week to play the game of selecting a Lions XV for the first Test against Australia next summer. Now, when this game was played in the past, it has been quite normal to find no Scots – or perhaps a single one – in these teams. Not so this week.

Almost all the contributors named four or even five Scots in the back division; this is, to say the least, remarkable. It also makes good sense. Admittedly there were fewer in the selected forwards who, in the opinion of most of the panel, were almost wholly Irish. Only a couple of the writers preferred Zander Fagerson to Tadg Furlong at tight-head prop, one of them a Scot. Still, overall the number of Scots selected in this agreeable party game was as pleasing as it was unusual.

Back, however, to the real thing. Of the three matches that we have at Murrayfield in the upcoming Six Nations, two are against Italy and Wales, neither at the moment in fine fettle. The other is, however, against Ireland, whom we haven't beaten since 2017. Indeed, we have lost the last ten games against them, having lost to Ireland in the last two World Cups.

We have come close two or three times and two of these games should arguably have been won. Moreover, many of the Scots – the Glasgow players anyway – have the experience of beating the Irish provinces. There have been some signs – or at least signs hopefully identified – this month that Ireland may not be quite as they were, though they looked pretty good to me when they played Argentina, beating the Pumas 22-19 in Dublin a couple of Friday nights ago.

Then our away matches are at Twickenham and the Stade de France. Remarkably our recent record against England has almost been as happy as the one against Ireland has been depressing. There are even young Scots now who may expect to beat England, even on enemy soil. Those of us who have approached the Calcutta Cup game there with a doubtful “aye, maybe this time” still can't quite believe our recent record there.

Nor, I suspect, can the English. Still, if we may be on the point of winning hard games, England are experiencing what we have often known: how to lose such games. I can't believe that England will be as poor yet again, but may be. As for France at the Stade de France, we have won there recently. Recognising how very good Antoine Dupont's team are, we know how to win in Paris, and at this distance it is possible – even permissible – to indulge the thought of a Six Nations Grand Slam for either side in Paris on, one hopes, a spring afternoon. After all, we won the 1984 Grand Slam against France and also the last Five Nations championship in Paris.

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend. | SNS Group / SRU

One of the best reasons for optimism is that Townsend now seems to have established what is his best XV, or 23-man matchday squad. I suppose one should say in which connection it's also encouraging that he can now bring on replacements who are up to the demands of international rugby. But being able consistently to field the same starting XV is a characteristic of all the best international teams over the years – with the possible exception of South Africa today, who have such a rich store of talent and power that they can pretty well field two different XVs with little to choose between them.

Now we revert for a few weeks to club matches in the United Rugby Championship, the English Premiership and the Top 14. We have key players in all three leagues, and we will watch these games with a mixture of hope for good results and nervous anxiety in case some of Scotland’s settled XV and bench are badly injured.

The anxiety is natural. We may have – indeed do have – more strength in depth than we have had for a long time, but injuries to any of a half-dozen players (whom I shall prudently refrain from naming) would make our high hopes and well-justified confidence as we approach the Six Nations be somewhat dimmed and dented.