Scotland and Ireland are playing high-stakes Rugby World Cup game - even in a two-horse race, the favourite doesn't always win

In the days of the Auld Alliance when the Scots Company of Archers were the French king’s Bodyguard, there was a saying “Fier comme un Ecossais”, proud as a Scot. Gregor Townsend’s team will have to live up to that reputation against Ireland this evening, for it is undeniable that the odds are heavily in Ireland’s favour.

Scotland's Ali Price (left) during the team run at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, France.

Consider Ireland. They are ranked No 1 in the world and have won their last 18 matches. In that time they have beaten everybody. Scotland haven’t beaten them since 2017. In this World Cup they have defeated South Africa who have beaten us. It is hard – to be honest, I find it impossible – to pick out a weakness in Ireland’s starting XV, and most of the players on their bench would get into other Six Nations sides. They are an 80-minute team whereas Townsend’s men, for all their frequent brilliance and ability to score tries against most opponents, tend to have occasional periods when they seem to lose concentration and concede tries, as they did in the first ten minutes of the second half against South Africa.

These are all rather depressing reflections. Nevertheless there is no need to abandon hope. Even in a two-horse race, the favourite doesn’t always win. He may be nervous or not at his best, and the other horse may be ridden cannily.

Consider the two matches against South Africa. We began badly with the lineout not functioning well. Nevertheless we held on and at half-time were only three points behind. At that point I thought we would win. Then came that lapse – and we lost.

The Ireland-South Africa game was a ding-dong battle from first to last whistle. For most of the match the Springboks seemed marginally the better team, but they made too many mistakes. They missed kicks at goal, and on one occasion took what was surely the wrong option, Faf de Klerk trying to kick a penalty goal from just inside his own half, rather than opting to kick to the corner. In extenuation it might be argued that South Africa had failed to score tries when they were deep in the Irish 22, and so it made sense to try to apply scoreboard pressure. He failed and then in the last minutes South Africa again failed to cross the Irish line from close quarters. Of course these failures testify to the quality of the Irish defence. Nevertheless the fact is that it was a match South Africa had chances to win, only to let them slip. As a result of poor decisions and poor execution. It was a terrific match, but one which suggested Ireland aren’t invincible.

There is huge pressure on both teams as there always must be in big World Cup games – Ireland’s scrum-half Jamison Gibson-Park, so often their general or organising genius, showed signs of feeling that pressure against South Africa. For Ireland there is expectation of victory and that creates its own pressure. Scotland come into the match as the underdog and an underdog with a grievance. If the composition of the pools hadn’t been determined so ridiculously early, they would have been in the lower half of the draw and probably, like Wales and England now, with their place in the quarter-final booked.

Two of Townsend’s selection have been questioned: the inclusion of Ali Price and the omission of Hamish Watson. Both must have been made after long discussion. To my mind both are right. Price, fully fit is our best all-round 9, the best reader of the game and the one most able to take pressure off Finn Russell. Watson is so many’s favourite player, an outstanding one for years. But he has played little rugby and no really top-class rugby this year, and may not be quite the player he was. In any case you need speed at 7 against Ireland, and young Rory Darge is faster and more effective at the beakdown than the ageing hero Watson. There are times when the baton is passed to the younger player and this, sadly for Hamish, is one of them.

Ireland are rightly favourites because they are No 1 in the world and Scotland haven’t played really well against them for too long. So who knows? Let us at any rate hope for a great and memorable match, one in which my favourite Irish player, Munster’s Peter O’Mahony, gets his 100th cap – what an achievement!