Rugby World Cup: What Scotland need to do against Japan to qualify for quarter-finals

Scotland's ruthless performance against Russia ensured that they were still in contention going into the final round of Pool A fixtures.

A bonus point victory should see Scotland qualify for the Rugby World Cup quarter finals (Getty Images)

Progression to the knockout stages remains far from straightforward for Gregor Townsend's men, however, especially with the approach of Super Typhoon Hagibis.

Japan, Ireland and Scotland will all fancy their chances of claiming one of the top two spots which would ensure them a quarter-final fixture with either New Zealand, South Africa or Italy of Pool B.

So what exactly do Scotland need to do to progress to the quarter-finals?

Ireland will qualify for the quarter-finals with a bonus point victory (Getty Images)

Brace yourselves, this gets a little complicated.

How do things stand?

Despite their resounding 61-0 victory over Russia Scotland still sit in third place with 10 points.

Tournament hosts Japan currently top the group with 14 points, while Ireland are sitting in second on 11 points.

What do Scotland need to do to qualify?

The final two pool A fixtures will determine the fate of the three sides with Ireland facing Samoa on Saturday and Scotland facing off with Japan on Sunday.

Let's assume Ireland claim a bonus point victory against Samoa and end the group stage on 16 points. This lead would be unassailable for Scotland and mean that they could only clinch a knockout stage spot by claiming second place.

A Scotland bonus point victory would therefore ensure that the boys in blue progress to the quarter final-stages. Even if Japan were to clinch a losing bonus point Scotland would progress due to their superior head-to-head record

If Scotland were to win without a bonus point, they would progress on the condition that Japan also didn't claim a losing bonus point - if Japan did claim a bonus point in this scenario the host side would progress to the quarter final stage finishing one point ahead of Scotland.

In the unlikely scenario that Japan claim a losing bonus point and a four-try bonus point, they would finish on 16 points and out of reach for Scotland.

What if Ireland don't manage a bonus point victory?

All three sides could conceivably finish on 15 points.

If Ireland were to win against Samoa, but not claim a bonus point they would finish on 15 points.

A bonus point for Scotland paired with a losing bonus point for Japan would see both sides also finish on 15 points.

In the event that all three sides finish on 15 points top spot would be decided by points difference, while second and third would be decided by head-to-head record. Due to sizeable victories over Samoa and Russia, Scotland would definitely finish with a better points difference than Japan were they to claim victory over the Brave Blossoms.

In this scenario if Ireland were to better Scotland's victory by 19 points Joe Schmidt's men would progress in top spot, with Scotland in second. Less then a 19 point victory would earn Scotland top spot and Japan second place by way of head-to-head.

What if Scotland don't win?

A loss for Scotland would end their chances of progressing to the quarter finals.

A draw, however, would see them qualify if Ireland were to lose against Samoa and not claim a bonus point.

What about Typhoon Hagibis?

Scotland's future in the tournament is even more uncertain due to the approach of Super Typhoon Hagibis.

The arrival of the storm could see Sunday's fixture cancelled and according to tournament rules, a cancelled match would result in the match being declared a draw.

This would see Scotland drop out of the tournament, unless Ireland lost to Samoa.

Conclusion

A bonus point victory would all but confirm Scotland's progression to the quarter-finals.