Rugby World Cup: What Scotland need against Ireland to qualify after South Africa beat Tonga – and what happens if three teams finish tied on points

Scotland claimed their second win of the 2023 Rugby World Cup and their second biggest in the history of the tournament with a dominant 84-0 victory over minnows Romania in Lille on Saturday night.

Scotland players greet supporters after defeating Romania 84-0 at the Rugby World Cup. (Photo by SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP via Getty Images)

Darcy Graham helped himself to four tries – becoming the joint second highest try scorer in Scotland’s history in the process – with Hamish Watson, Ali Price, Matt Fagerson, Chris Harris, Ollie Smith, Ben Healy, Johnny Matthews and Rory Darge all crossing the whitewash.

Healy converted 11 of the 12 tries to take his own individual points tally to 27, with substitute George Horne converting the final try of the night to wrap up the scoring in the 78th minute as Scotland fell just short of their record 89-0 World Cup win over Ivory Coast in 1995.

The monster result took Scotland on to 10 points from three matches played in Pool B after following up defeat to South Africa in their opening fixture with bonus point wins over Tonga and Romania. It leaves the current standings in Pool B on Sunday night after South Africa’s bonus-point 49-18 win over Tonga as follows: 1 South Africa 10 pts, 2 Ireland 14 pts, 3 Scotland 10 points.

Scotland now face Ireland in their final Pool B fixture on Saturday for a place in the quarter-finals. Only the top two sides qualify for the last eight, meaning Scotland must not only beat Ireland, but do so by more than seven points to deny Ireland a losing bonus point. That would leave both sides on 14 points but Scotland would finish above Ireland based on head-to-head record and qualify for the quarter-finals alongside the Springboks. Should Scotland win by scoring four or more tries, then they would claim a bonus point to finish on 15 points, with Ireland requiring a losing bonus point, either by scoring four or more tries themselves or keeping the score within seven points, to keep themselves in contention.

Such a scenario would see all three sides finish level on 15 points and the group winner would then be determined by points difference across all Pool B matches, with second place going to the team that won the head-to-head between the two remaining sides. If Ireland top the group on points difference, South Africa would go through as runner-up due to their victory over Scotland. If South Africa top the group on points difference, Scotland would go through having defeated Ireland. If Scotland top the group on points difference then Ireland would go through in second place having defeated South Africa. The current points difference totals for the three sides are: South Africa +117, Ireland +122, Scotland +97.

There is even a scenario whereby Scotland could defeat Ireland, claiming the bonus point by scoring four or more tries, but still be eliminated if Ireland manage to secure two losing bonus points by finishing within seven points AND scoring four or more tries themselves. A glorious failure Gregor Townsend’s men would be keen to avoid.