Japan 19 Ireland 12: World Cup stunner, but what does it mean for Scotland?

Japan celebrate their stunning 19-12 victory over Ireland in Shizuoaka. Picture: Getty Images

Four years on from the “Miracle of Brighton” when the Brave Blossoms shocked South Africa in the tournament’s biggest ever upset, this surpasses it as the world No 2 side were humbled on home soil.

For Scotland fans, the question is how does it affect their team’s path to the quarter-finals, which had already been made tricky by their comprehensive defeat to the then world No 1 Irish in Yokohama a week ago.

That they had to win all their remaining pool games against Samoa, Russia and Japan was a given. Now they may need to win them all with a bonus point, a system which complicates matters from here on in.

Basically, the sensational result in Shizuoka, which saw Japan fight back to overhaul Ireland through a 59th-minute try by winger Kenki Fukuoka and four Yu Tamura penalties after tries from Garry Ringrose and Rob Kearney saw Ireland lead 12-9 at the break, means Pool A has been blown wide open and there are scenarios which could see the hosts, Scotland, Ireland or Samoa all top the group, or finish runners-up, as things stand.

There are many permutations but cold, focused analysis says that Scotland’s must-win match against Samoa in Kobe is now must-win-with-a-bonus point.

Rugby’s bonus point system means that sides get four points for a win, with an extra point if they score at least four tries, and a point if they come within seven points (which Ireland did today) in defeat. It means you could accrue two points from a loss if you score four tries and finish within seven.

As it stands in Pool A, Japan are on played two, nine points, Ireland on played two, six, Samoa on, played one, five, Russia on played two, zero and Scotland, played one, zero.

After the loss to Ireland, Scotland knew they were headed for a shoot-out final pool clash against Japan in front of 70,000 in Yokohama.

The maximum points total Japan could have going into that game would be 14 if they beat Samoa by a bonus point. Then, they could still lose to Scotland but lose by seven or less and score four tries to take them to a 16-point total that Scotland can’t beat.

For now Scotland coach Gregor Townsend is fully focused on Scotland getting on the board and keeping themselves alive in those tournament with a win against Samoa on Monday, now with a four-try bonus essential.

If that is achieved there will be considerations for the next game against Russia, the pool minnows. Ideally, a raft of frontline players would be rested for that one, which comes with just a four-day turnaround to Japan, but with maximum points needed there may not be quite so much scope for luxury.

It is a well worn tradition in World Cups, particularly the soccer code back when Scotland reached such things, to be getting the calculators out in the group stage and, with only one game played here in Japan, we’re at that stage already with the national rugby team.

If teams finish level on points it firstly comes down to head-to-head, so if it comes down to a Japan v Scotland quarter-final decider, which could see the hosts on 14 points to Scotland’s ten, a win would be enough. As long as Japan don’t get a losing or try bonus point.

Another of those moments when journalists who, at school, thought “I don’t need Maths, I’m a words man” regret their dismissal of the subject.

In the meantime, let’s not take away from a monumental result and occasion which, for whatever it may mean for Scotland’s prospects, is exactly what this tournament needed and will electrify a host nation already simmering with excitement. A truly special World Cup is brewing. Time for Scotland to get involved. And quick.

Our Japan 2019 Rugby World Cup coverage is brought to you in association with Castle Water www.castlewater.co.uk and on Twitter @CastleWaterLtdFollow Duncan Smith in Japan on Twitter @Duncan_Smith