Glasgow Warriors are odds-on favourites but don't forget Edinburgh did a number on them last time

Glasgow Warriors are such overwhelming favourites for Sunday’s 1872 Cup first leg at Hampden it’s easy to forget that Edinburgh won when the sides last met.

Duhan van der Merwe was their match-winner at Murrayfield last December and the galloping winger will play his 100th game for the capital club this weekend. But not even the presence of Scotland’s all-time top try-scorer is enough to convince the bookmakers that Edinburgh will finish anything other than second best against their oldest rivals.

Most odds setters have Glasgow at 1-5 to win this historic first meeting of the pro teams at the national football stadium. Looking at the stats, it’s hard to disagree. Edinburgh have not won an away game all season and you have to go back to April for their last victory on the road, which came against Cardiff. Their away record against Glasgow is even more abject. Their last win in the west was on December 29, 2018 when Stuart McInally scored their only try and Jaco van der Walt kicked 11 points in a 16-8 victory at Scotstoun. We’ve had five different prime ministers since then.

Sione Tuipulotu got his hands on the 1872 Cup last season as Glasgow Warriors beat Edinburgh on aggregate as each side won its home games. | SNS Group

Factor in Glasgow’s home form - they haven’t lost a regular-season URC game for over three years - and it appears hard to make a case for Sean Everitt’s side. And yet the Hampden factor adds a dash of uncertainty and invests this fixture with an extra layer of intrigue.

Glasgow should be applauded for having the imagination to try something different and the expected attendance of around 27,000-28,000 will be a new record for one of their home games but they are taking a risk in moving the match from Scotstoun. If the experiment is a success it will be repeated and the hope is that the crowds can continue to grow, mirroring what Edinburgh have done with their home leg of the 1872 Cup.

Almost 38,000 were at Murrayfield for last season’s fixture, the outcome of which still rankles with Franco Smith. His Warriors side were in the ascendancy for most of the match before being undone by van der Merwe’s wonderful late try, created by a brilliantly won turnover by Darcy Graham. The Glasgow coach is acutely aware of the threat posed by the two wingers.

“They finish well,” said Smith. “Darcy, specifically lately, has been getting his hands on a lot of the ball off his wing. He gets involved quite a bit, asks questions of defenders who are used to facing straight-up carries and then these guys come in with a bit of footwork before the contact which makes them really effective.

“I think it was the two of them that got one over us last year at Murrayfield. Darcy stole the ball in the last five metres out and gave it to Duhan who ran the length [of the pitch]. We were about to score the fourth bonus point try there and that would have definitely given us the win and the bonus point.

Duhan van der Merwe scores the winning try for Edinburgh against Glasgow at Murrayfield last year. | SNS Group / SRU

“Darcy turned it over like a loose forward and popped it to Duhan. So, yeah, they have an influence and can make a difference.”

Glasgow’s own wingers are not too shabby and the return of Kyle Steyn is especially pleasing for Smith. The club captain will be on one flank, with Sebastian Cancelliere on the other as Kyle Rowe switches to full-back to cover for the injured Josh McKay. It is an impressive looking trio in a starting XV that boasts 13 full internationals.

Injuries mean the Warriors look less strong in the back row where Rory Darge and Henco Venter have joined Jack Dempsey as notable absentees. Both Darge and Venter failed head injury assessments after last weekend’s 30-29 defeat in Toulon but Smith is hopeful they will be available for the second leg at Murrayfield on December 28.

Matt Fagerson comes back into the team and will wear seven against Edinburgh alongside Ally Miller, at six, and Jack Mann, who retains the No 8 jersey. Miller and Mann are the two uncapped players in the Glasgow side. The former was a try-scorer in last season’s victory over Edinburgh at Scotstoun and the latter will be playing only his fifth game for the Warriors.

“I'm very excited with his progression,” Smith said of Mann who has had a torrid time with injuries. “He's a young Scottish talent and somebody that we wanted to bring through. That's what this club's about. It's about keeping dreams and allowing players to come and contribute and grow the Scottish availability list as big as we can.”

It’s a big game for Miller, Matt Fagerson and Mann who go up against a vastly more experienced Edinburgh trio in Jamie Ritchie, Luke Crosbie and Magnus Bradbury, each of whom have played over 100 times for their club.

Glasgow’s injury problems in the back row are highlighted by the fact that Smith has named three hookers on the bench, Gregor Hiddleston, Grant Stewart and Angus Fraser.

A fascinating subplot to Sunday is that there is a sibling rivalry to go alongside the inter-city enmity. Sione Tuipulotu will wear 12 for Glasgow while his younger brother, Mosese, is picked in the same position for Edinburgh. Everitt acknowledged that it will be a real test for his player.

“Sione's been in sublime form for his club as well as Scotland so it'll be a big challenge for Mosese,” said the coach. “I think the family relationship will be put aside for those 80 minutes. Mo's growing at this level and I think it's another opportunity to put his hand up for international selection.”

Everitt needs an away win sooner rather than later and Sunday would be the ideal time. “It would be massive for the team and the team's confidence,” he said. “Our away form has been questioned and rightfully so. It would be a big statement for us and obviously puts us on the front foot going into the second leg.”

Glasgow Warriors: Kyle Rowe; Sebastian Cancelliere, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu, Kyle Steyn (capt); Tom Jordan, George Horne; Jamie Bhatti, Johnny Matthews, Zander Fagerson, Gregor Brown, Scott Cummings, Ally Miller, Matt Fagerson, Jack Mann. Replacements: Gregor Hiddleston, Rory Sutherland, Patrick Schickerling, Alex Samuel, Grant Stewart, Angus Fraser, Jamie Dobie, Duncan Weir.

Edinburgh: Wes Goosen; Darcy Graham, Matt Currie, Mosese Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe; Ross Thompson, Ali Price; Pierre Schoeman, Ewan Ashman, D’Arcy Rae, Marshall Sykes, Grant Gilchrist (capt), Jamie Ritchie, Luke Crosbie, Magnus Bradbury. Replacements: Dave Cherry, Boan Venter, Javan Sebastian, Sam Skinner, Ben Muncaster, Ben Vellacott, Ben Healy, James Lang.

Referee: Hollie Davidson (SRU).