Fraser Brown: Scotland must beat Wales or face major questions - this is the one change I think Townsend will make

Home side need to be more clinical against revitalised opponents

Scotland will be trying to get the ball into the hands of Duhan van der Merwe as much as possible. | Getty Images

I was at Twickenham, working for BBC Radio 5 Live, and the first 40 minutes against England was as dominant a performance as I have seen from a Scotland side away from home in the Six Nations.

Given how on top they were, their lead needed to be more than three points at half-time. We all know what happened in the second half and England were able to win by a single point. It means this weekend's match against Wales at Murrayfield falls into the must-win category.

Unfortunately, it won't be the Wales of four weeks ago turning up.

Scotland will be trying to get the ball into the hands of Duhan van der Merwe as much as possible. | Getty Images

They’ve had an immediate lift from the departure of Warren Gatland and the arrival of Matt Sherratt as interim coach. It’s the new manager bounce. They played very well against Ireland, even though they eventually lost 27-18.

Sherratt only had two rugby sessions with them before the Ireland game which begs the question, what can you change in two sessions? They looked to be playing with more freedom in attack, and a lot more licence to move the ball. The challenge for Wales this week is to translate the effort put in against Ireland into actual consistent performances.

What Sherratt has done differently is pick in-form players. He selected Max Llewellyn and brought back Gareth Anscombe, and went mainly with combinations that play together every week. The 9 and 10 - Tomos Williams and Anscombe - play with each other at Gloucester for example, so there's a lot more familiarity there.

They obviously played a little bit more rugby, too. They were more adventurous. They had a solid platform as well, which really helped the lineout. The scrum was also really good. Actually, the scrum was probably the most improved part of their game. They took Ireland to the cleaners in that first half an hour and it gave them the platform to attack.

They just looked like a freer team, a side that had been unburdened from the Warren Gatland era. That's no slight on Gats, but everything around Welsh rugby over the last year and a half seemed weighed down with doom and gloom. Sherratt has been a breath of fresh air.

A lot has been made of Wales’ run of 15 consecutive defeats but it depends how you break it up. Do they look at it as ‘we’ve just narrowly lost to a team who could well end up as Grand Slam champions and three-time Six Nations winners’? Or do you look at it as 15 in a row?

Wales played with more freedom in the defeat by Ireland. Here, Tom Rogers scores his team's second try. | Getty Images

If it’s the former, you can almost forget the first 14 losses as they all came from the Gatland era. It's now a different era.

Some are looking at this as a completely new phase of Welsh rugby and certainly the Welsh media have gone down that route.

They're talking positively about Sherratt, the players who are coming in, the selections, the attacking rugby, and if they win this weekend, then that will continue. If they lose, then does it go back to ‘new coach, same results’? Sixteen in a row would be hard to swallow.

Results completely change your perception. You can play absolutely shockingly, win by one point, and it's been a successful weekend. Scotland played brilliantly for the first 40 minutes at Twickenham, didn't win, and are now facing a tough challenge. They need to win this weekend to make sure they're not going into the final game against France in Paris looking to avoid a fifth or sixth place finish.

The problem for Scotland at Twickenham was that they didn't score enough points when they were on top. Yes, there were some fairly dodgy refereeing decisions, but it was the same for both sides.

You can't afford to get into the opposition 22 six, seven, eight times in the first half and not come away with more points. They've got to be more clinical.

England changed their tactics in the second half and Scotland didn’t manage to get the ball into the hands of Blair Kinghorn and Duhan van der Merwe in space.

They kept on trying to do it. They kept on going into midfield and then coming back down the short side to get the ball to Duhan but it ended up being really congested and they started losing the collisions.

This weekend, Scotland need to start the game like they did against England. They attacked really well. They were a little bit tighter with the forwards creating more space on the edges for Scotland’s dangerous backline to attack in space.

Scotland need their set-piece to function. I thought the lineout was really good for the first 55 to 60 minutes against England but, in the last 20 minutes, they just couldn't get any ball off of it. Even when they were winning the lineout, it was scrappy and they couldn't launch an attack.

And the scrum is still too inconsistent - there’s going to be a bit of pressure on it this weekend. You can't really underestimate how important it is for Wales to have Adam Jones in their camp as a scrum consultant.

Adam Jones' arrival as a 'scrum consultant' has been an important appointment for Wales. | Getty Images

He’s not necessarily going to transform things overnight but there is a change of energy, a tweak to the philosophy. A lot of the boys will have looked up to him as a player.

Scotland’s props, Pierre Schoeman and Zander Fagerson, are the cornerstones of their scrum but a scrum is built on more than just good scrummaging props. The connection across the whole unit, particularly the back five of the scrum, is as important, if not moreso than who’s up front.

There is so much endeavour and hard work in that Scotland pack but it just doesn't quite look like the sum of its parts at the minute.

I think Zander's scrummaging well. I think Pierre's probably not been at his best over the last 12 months. But again, you can get away with that if you're a really well-functioning unit. It just looks like they're not quite gelling as well as they have done in the past.

Having said all that, I don't think there'll be many changes to the Scotland starting team for Saturday.

I think Rory Sutherland will return to the bench in place of Jamie Bhatti after missing the England game due to a back spasm. I think it will be a five-three split of forwards and backs this time, with George Horne coming in for Jamie Dobie.

I thought Kyle Rowe played really well at Twickenham and it would be a harsh call to drop him from the starting 15, but with Darcy Graham available again, I think Kyle will drop to the bench with Darcy taking his place in the starting team.

Darcy Graham, left, with Finn Russell during Scotland training. | SNS Group / SRU

This really is a must-win for Scotland. Had they not turned up against England and lost then I think it would probably have been a different narrative being played out in public and in the press just now. I think the manner of the performance, particularly the first half, has kind of smoothed over the loss.

But if Scotland don't win this weekend at home, it means they'll have beaten only Italy in their first four games, with a trip to Paris to come.

That's not good enough from a playing point of view or from a coaching point of view. A team who started the championship with the goal of competing for the title can’t be finishing fifth or sixth and winning one game in the Six Nations. If they don't win this weekend, then I think there will be some major conversations and questions over how Scotland go forward.

They should win. Regardless of the Welsh revival, Scotland are a much better team and they've been together for longer.

They'll go in thinking they are the stronger side. They won't go in thinking ‘we need to win this game’. They'll take the confidence from how they played against England, knowing they should have won.

Win this weekend and Scotland can head to Paris for the final round with a bit of wind in their sails, some momentum and an opportunity to finish the tournament with back to back victories.