Can Scotland win the Six Nations? The ideal Ireland result and why bonus points could be crucial

Scotland are still in the running to win the 2023 Guinness Six Nations despite their 32-21 defeat to France in Paris at the end of last month.

Going into the Ireland match, Gregor Townsend's side are third in the table on 10 points, five behind co-leaders Ireland and France (who have played a game more after beating England on Saturday), after opening the tournament with impressive back-to-back bonus point wins over England and Wales. It means that, despite losing to the French on matchday three, Scotland remain firmly in contention to lift the trophy for the first time since 1999 – when it was still the Five Nations. To do so, and make history, Scotland must win their remaining two fixtures against Ireland and Italy at Murrayfield. However, even that may not be enough depending on both the margin of victory and results elsewhere.

While any win over the Irish this Sunday will keep the dream alive, to give themselves the best possible chance of glory the following weekend, Scotland will be looking for the extra bonus point. More than that, they would also ideally prevent Ireland from claiming any losing bonus points. That would involve stopping Ireland from scoring four or more tries, as well as ensuring they beat their opponents by more than seven points, while scoring four or more tries themselves to take the maximum five points on offer and draw level with Ireland at the top of the standings. Easier said than done against the number one ranked side in world rugby.

Why Scotland need a big win

Finn Russell (centre) after Scotland's win over Wales at Murrayfield last month. (Photo by Ross Parker / SNS Group)

While not crucial at this stage, Scotland could also move top of the table going into the final round of fixtures with an even bigger margin of victory. Ireland currently boast a points differential of +51 compared to Scotland's +23. That means Scotland will only leapfrog the championship leaders if, in addition to the aforementioned bonus point requirements, they win Sunday’s match by at least 14 points. A tall order, but not impossible given the form Scotland have shown in the tournament thus far, with 12 tries scored during their three matches. For context, the last time Scotland recorded such a sizeable win over the Irish was in the 2001 Six Nations when Ian McGeechan's side claimed a 32-10 win at Murrayfield in a match postponed until the September due to the outbreak of foot and mouth.

Of course, any victory over Ireland this Sunday is to be welcomed and would bring Scotland the honour of securing the Triple Crown for defeating the three home nations for the first time since the 1990 Grand Slam. It would also mean Scotland remain major contenders for the 2023 title going into the final weekend, where they would need to beat Italy and hope that results elsewhere go in their favour.

What Scotland need from England v France

France are still in contention after their huge 53-10 win over England and Twickenham. On 15 points as well with a points difference of +46, they play Wales in Paris next weekend. With the table looking tighter at this stage than it has in recent years, there is a real prospect that two teams could finish level on points at the top of the pile following the final round of fixtures. That would see the title decided by a tiebreaker, with the team which holds the better points differential being declared champions. If that fails to separate tied teams, then it would go to the team that scored the highest number of total tries. In the unlikely and remarkable scenario that teams are still equal after all tiebreakers, then the title would be shared between them.

It raises the prospect of Scotland, providing they beat Ireland, embarking on a try chase against the Italians in their final match to ensure they have the best possible points total, points differential and total tries, to give themselves the best chance of winning the title. Scotland's final match against Italy kicks off at Murrayfield at 12.30pm on Saturday, March 18 while Ireland's final showdown against England at the Aviva Stadium doesn't start until 5.00pm. The ideal scenario of a bonus point win over Ireland this Sunday, followed by another bonus point win over Italy next weekend, would put Scotland five points ahead of Ireland ahead of that final match in Dublin, meaning the Irish would require their own sizeable bonus point win over England to take the title down to the aforementioned tiebreakers. France can also retain the title won last year if they record a big wins over Wales and other results go in their favour.

Whatever happens, bonus points look like being critical to the final outcome and Scotland may yet come to rue that last minute try conceded in Paris which saw a losing one slip away. For now it is all ifs, buts and maybes, but the permutations mean that this is the most exciting climax to a Six Nations, certainly from a Scotland perspective, for many a year.