Another lukewarm year for Scotland - and lack of coherent professional structure is hurting us

2022 has been a year much like many for Scotland’s rugby team; lukewarm, you might say.

Scotland recorded some good wins in 2022 but also suffered some painful defeats, not least against Wales back in February.

There were matches we lost but probably should have won: Wales in the 6 Nations, the third summer test in Argentina, Australia at Murrayfield in the autumn. Conversely, England would surely have won the Calcutta Cup game at Murrayfield if their ability to score points had matched their domination of territory. In short, our international record this year was much like several others this century, if also better than a good many.

Is there an reason to think that 2023 will be better? We have three Six Nations games at Murrayfield, which might reasonably have us hoping for three victories. The second match, however, is against Ireland and the Irish have been our masters for quite some time now, too long certainly. Just at present Ireland are arguably the most efficient team in the world. Their game-plan is clear, nevertheless very hard to disrupt (There might be a better chance of doing so if referees were readier to penalise side-entry at the breakdown). We are away to England and France. Perhaps Gregor Townsend’s team can extend their recent remarkable record at Twickenham … perhaps. As for France, well, a win there would be a remarkable achievement. Realistically, wins at Murrayfield against Wales and a rapidly improving Italy may be as much as we can look for. Three victories in the Six Nations would fairly be judged a successful spring. This looked more possible a few weeks ago. Gregor Townsend seemed to have established his best starting XV. Now this won’t, on account of injuries, take the field at Twickenham where England may be revitalised by their change of coach.

The big event of the year is of course the World Cup in France. Everyone now knows that World Rugby’s absurd decision to fix the pools years in advance has been bad news for us, landing us in the same pool as Ireland and South Africa. So reaching the quarter-finals would be a considerable achievement.

Reflecting on immediate prospects leaves me thinking that the Vern Cotter/Gregor Townsend years may be as good as we’ll get. We walk on very thin ice. Whatever its financial and commercial success, the SRU has failed to create the sort of structure that makes anything more than the occasional success likely, or even possible. The two pro teams run very hard to hold their ground. Below or beyond them there is very little. Our under-20 team has lost its last 14 matches. So much for the quality of the SRU’s development strategy.

Compare a successful Ireland with Scotland. Everyone in the Irish international squad plays his club rugby in Ireland; perhaps half the Scotland squad for any match do so, even if it is fair to say that several – Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, Rory Sutherland, Jonny Gray, Adam Hastings and the currently out of favour Magnus Bradbury – came up by way of Scottish schools and/or clubs. Even more to the point, almost everyone in the Ireland international squad learned and developed their rugby in Irish schools and clubs, the exceptions being a handful of players qualitied by residence. Of course, a fair number of Scotland players born and schooled in England developed their game here, having joined Edinburgh or Glasgow while young and raw, Hamish Watson and Ali Price being notable examples. Nevertheless, whatever qualifications one may choose to make, it is clear that in the quarter-century since the game went professional, Ireland have been much more successful in identifying and developing young players than we have.

Given disruption caused by Covid, it is too early to know if the SRU’s darling scheme – the Super6 – will provide a pathway to the top-level pro-game. There are a good many sceptics – I’m one of them – but we may all be too gloomy.

There are several outstanding players in the present Scotland squad and there is enough quality there for highly satisfying victories from time to time, while over the last decade there have been some splendid victories. Yet nobody, looking back over the past quarter-century, can honestly be satisfied. The meagre Scottish representation in Lions’ squads can’t sensibly be put down to anti-Scottish prejudice; it’s been a fair judgement on the strength and quality of our game, and responsibility for our consistent failures to win the Six Nations (as Ireland and Wales have both done several times) is less the fault of individual coaches and players than of administrators – that is, of the SRU’s failure to to establish a strong and coherent structure for professional rugby. When they look across the Irish Sea, they should surely be just a bit embarrassed.