Robinson needs sure touch as he shuffles pack

Players had a rare day away from rugby, some enjoying the delights of a cable-car ride and all trying to avoid thinking about whether or not they will make the team for the third match, against Argentina. As much as they enjoyed the hospitality among 50,000 residents in Invercargill, players have commented that they feel a tangible increase in intensity now. Wellington is a big rugby city, one that houses nearly 200,000 people of varying shapes, sizes and ethnicities, with double that in the Wellington province, very few of whom do not view rugby as the major interest.

So it is not only thousands of miles away in Scotland that people are pondering the make-up of the team that will face Argentina in what is being viewed as the decisive game in Pool B, and a cracking draw for the windy city.

The Pumas, currently ranked ninth in the world, were expected to overcome Romania in Invercargill’s final World Cup match early this morning and are favourites to beat Georgia two weeks tomorrow. If that occurred, their clash with Scotland next weekend would indeed determine which of these two sides qualify for the 2011 quarter-finals.

So, who will Andy Robinson and his coaching staff turn to this week to claim the crucial victory that would leave Scotland facing England in Auckland – provided Martin Johnson’s side do not slip up against Georgia tomorrow or Romania next weekend – to determine which side goes into the last eight as group winners and which as runners-up?

Robinson has been astute so far in playing most of his squad in the warm-up matches in Scotland and again over the course of the opening games in Invercargill. That was always the plan and has ensured the majority have enjoyed a decent share of match-time. But now he is writing a new plan, based around the strengths and weaknesses he has witnessed on South Island.

There was little to emerge, he said, that he did not know already, but the differing performance of the packs, not only in the set-piece but around the park, has left him with fascinating selection dilemmas. This is where Robinson’s mettle as an international head coach is tested to the intensity that his players were by the physical, bulldozing Georgians.

How much does he go with form now and how much on experience? It would be hard not to stick with the pack that defied Georgia so strongly, but one change is already guaranteed with Euan Murray’s absence for the Sunday match due to his Christian beliefs. Geoff Cross will return there as Moray Low has been given no game-time so far, although I would pick Low alongside Alasdair Dickinson for the bench and have no qualms about sending Low on in the second half against the Pumas.

Allan Jacobsen and Ross Ford pick themselves, but the back five is intriguing. Nathan Hines and Jim Hamilton were heroic against Georgia, their experience, strength and determination at the heart of the Scottish display. Captain Al Kellock is the master lineout performer, with Hamilton close behind, and the lineout should be a great source of ball and an area for destruction of opposition play in this game, so one is tempted to go with Hamilton and Kellock and have Hines on the bench to come on either at lock or flanker. Richie Gray is unlucky, but he has not grasped his chance and shown up as well so far as the others. He probably just needs another game, and may be a man for the big stage, but time waits for no man in a World Cup.

The back row is another cracking call, simply because all five to have started so far have been good. Kelly Brown is a shoo-in and, while he is not a flyer off the scrum in the way Vernon can be, he is a great, consistent performer and would be my No 8 pick. Alasdair Strokosch also showed his steel again against Georgia and one recalls his influence in turning around the 2009 Test series in Argentina with a strong call to arms to his team-mates, so he leads the way for the No 6 shirt.

The openside is a tough choice between two flankers with different skills, John Barclay’s consistently good work at the breakdown and in raw battles with opposition players, and Ross Rennie’s sheer speed about the park, allied to good breakdown work.

Either would do the job but having the one not picked on the bench would provide another option for what is expected to be a massively intense final quarter.

Rory Lamont did not quite do enough to dislodge Chris Paterson from the full-back berth, and Paterson’s goal-kicking is likely to be vital, and Max Evans, Sean Lamont and Graeme Morrison take the wing and 12 berths on form so far. One could toss a coin for the outside centre as Joe Ansbro and Nick De Luca have both stepped up to the mark and been Scotland’s best backs, so I would be tempted to reward that by starting one and giving the other the bench spot, able to cover from 12 to 14. Paterson can cover stand-off and wing, Lamont 12 and Evans 13.

So we come to the half-backs, and another big call for Robinson. Dan Parks did not get enough right in his all-round game against Georgia to nail the No 10 jersey and, while he was the orchestrator of the Test wins in Argentina in 2010, his inability to make the right decisions against the Pumas in the 2007 World Cup quarter-final still haunts.

Ruaridh Jackson has not excelled either, and still needs to improve his game control but, if we assume that the pack will perform as they did against Georgia, one has to look at why Scotland scored four tries against Romania with Jackson at ten and none when Parks was pulling the strings. It is unfair to see it as a straight reflection on the stand-offs, but Scotland did squander a number of overlaps again on Wednesday night – a common affliction in recent times – as players dropped balls, held on to it for too long rather than give the pass or kicked it away.

The scrum-half service also has to be slick under Puma-like scragging pressure, but there also has to be more threat from nine than we have seen, and so Chris Cusiter has to come into the frame. Mike Blair and Rory Lawson have had solid games but not starred and, while Blair is in pole position and will probably get the jersey, if Cusiter is 100 percent fit – and I assume he is – this would appear to be the perfect, gritty game for the scrum-half who learned at the feet of the scrapyard dog, Gary Armstrong.

Blair would be a great option off the bench in the second half to exploit tiredness in Puma ranks and widening gaps.

It is all theory, based on what we have seen so far. And, of all the Scotland coaches one has watched closely, none has been more inscrutable than Robinson.

He has tough choices to make, and knows a wrong call could be costly, but the coaches and players throughout the squad are moving into a newly-intense third week of World Cup action with a confidence that whoever does get the call has the ability and desire to take on the challenge of Argentina and grasp that quarter-final place.