O'Brien jockey set to choose Jan Vermeer for Derby after Abbey's form fades

That is the possibility facing Aidan O'Brien this week. Regular readers will know I yield to no one in my admiration for the Irish trainer, but I fear the Maestro of Ballydoyle may end up looking pretty crestfallen late next Saturday afternoon, unless a horse named after a Dutch painter is as good as certain Irish punters think.

O'Brien intends to be mob-handed in his raid on the Investec Derby at Epsom, and as of yesterday, he had the top four in the betting – Jan Vermeer, St Nicholas Abbey, Midas Touch and Cape Blanco. With four such class colts, O'Brien is surely a certainty to gain his third Derby, or so goes the thinking.

Of that quartet, St Nicholas Abbey was the favourite right up until Friday, following his scintillating victory in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last October. His sixth place in the 2,000 Guineas was promising, but a piece of less than brilliant work on Friday got the alarm bells ringing.

Stable jockey Johnny Murtagh may now desert St Nicholas Abbey and ride Jan Vermeer instead. Murtagh knows what it takes to win a Derby, having bagged three of them, and he may now prefer the chances of Jan Vermeer, easy winner of the 10-furlong Gallinule Stakes at The Curragh last Sunday and already a Group 1 winner having won the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud last November.

Or Murtagh may plump for Cape Blanco, a son of O'Brien's Derby winner Galileo, and a comfortable winner of the Dante Stakes at York, form which would normally have made him the Derby favourite.

Don't forget Midas Touch, impressive winner of the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown, a race which has produced a litany of Epsom and Irish Derby heroes.

The complicating factor for O'Brien is that the French Derby, the Prix du Jockey Club, is at Chantilly the day after the Epsom Derby. We'll preview that race next week, because at least we'll know the make-up of the field by then, but O'Brien has been aiming Viscount Nelson at this race all season and he will definitely run in France.

O'Brien yesterday urged punters to hold on to their money until the final running plans for Epsom are known.

"I think we'll make a final decision in the middle of the week," said O'Brien. "Obviously we have to decide which horses will go to France. Viscount Nelson will definitely go there and whether something goes with him will be decided in the middle of the week.

"They'll work again on Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on the horses, we'll have the main work done by then. The two intended for Epsom were St Nicholas Abbey and Midas Touch, along with At First Sight.

"Jan Vermeer and Cape Blanco had the possibility of going to France too so if there was any doubt about St Nicholas Abbey there is a big chance Jan Vermeer might go to Epsom as well.

"But it's all up in the air and I would say to everybody to just wait and see because we wouldn't want to run him unless we were very happy with him."

That's too big an 'if' for me, and suggests that the stable's previous confidence in St Nicholas Abbey is evaporating. Much will depend on Murtagh, and I would suggest going with whatever colt he chooses, which at this moment in time looks like Jan Vermeer.

It is not an O'Brien cakewalk, though. Having broken his Derby duck aboard Authorized three years ago, Frankie Dettori would love to bag another Epsom crown and he has a decent chance with a horse that has come from nowhere to figure in the betting, and which is trained by a rookie handler. Mahmood Al Zarooni was assistant to Sheikh Mohammed's main trainer Saeed bin Suroor in the Godolphin stables before moving to Moulton Paddocks in Newmarket, from where he has already sent out a dozen winners in an impressive start to his career as a full licence holder.

Sheikh Mohammed sent Al Zarooni the useful Rewilding from Andre Fabre's yard in France, and the new trainer was confidence itself when saddling the colt for the Listed bluesquare.com Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood 11 days ago. Frankie Dettori rode Rewilding to an easy win and has deserted bin Suroor's Al Zir to ride him in the Derby.

That's a huge indication for Frankie followers, and you can expect his current odds of 9-1 to be cut still further before next Saturday.

Sir Michael Stoute's Workforce was beaten by Cape Blanco in the Dante Stakes, but the horse ran green that day and will be much straighter for Epsom. He should improve a lot, but whether he can do so enough to beat the Ballydoyle mob is questionable.

The most impressive home trial for the Derby so far, in my opinion, was the totesport.com Lingfield Derby Trial earlier this month. His legions of fans will hope that Henry Cecil has found another Derby winner in Bullet Train, son of the mighty Sadler's Wells, who fairly sluiced up in a trial which Cecil has used to success in the past.

For what it's worth, I don't think St Nicholas Abbey will go to Epsom, and that Jan Vermeer, Midas Touch and Bullet Train will be the first three home. My heart says the latter to give Cecil one more Blue Riband, but the head will stay with Murtagh and I think he will choose Jan Vermeer as his best chance of victory.

In Friday's big races, do not bet against Sariska in the Coronation Cup, while Cecil could initiate a historic double with Musidora winner Aviate in the Investec Oaks.