Mind games: Edinburgh collapse has exposed squad's mental weakness

• Edinburgh players troop off the Murrayfield pitch after a loss to Ulster

It's almost as if they have imagined being in a nightmare, pinched themselves and woke up only to find that the reality is worse. Much worse.

One month ago their team were comfortably in the play-off places with four matches remaining, two of them against the worst teams in the league. Two wins would have done the trick and if they picked up a couple of bonus point along the way, so much the better.

A couple of bonus points was all Edinburgh managed to pick up. Well, that and some well-deserved barracking. They now need an unlikely five-point win against Leinster in Dublin this afternoon if they are to have any hope of making the play-offs. Last season the capital side finished with six straight wins to end up in second place. Now, Edinburgh have lost three in a row and conceded 14 tries. So what happened?

Here are a few theories in no particular order. First, the players had a collective collapse of will. Second, experienced heads went AWOL at important times. Third, it's a young squad with a lack of leadership not helped by Chris Paterson's absence. Fourth, there are too many good cops in the coaching staff and not enough bad ones.

Edinburgh's confidence was seriously undone by back-to-back losses to Glasgow at the turn of the year. Before those defeats Edinburgh had won seven from 12 in all competitions. Since Christmas they have won four from 11. Nonetheless, this theory ignores the evidence of early March when Edinburgh ran in five tries against Ospreys at Murrayfield and had the game wrapped up before the hour mark.

Quite simply, Edinburgh have failed because the players lack the mental wherewithal to do anything else. When faced with a simple path to the semi-finals, they blew it. They leaked 14 tries in 240 minutes of rugby and that sort of collapse owes nothing to defensive systems, patterns of play, levels of conditioning or even the volcanic ash from Iceland. Edinburgh's collapse was down to the age-old frailties of the club's collective mindset that we have witnessed all too often over the years.

Going into the last weekend, Moffat's side held two records: with 36 tries to their credit they boasted the best attack in the Magners League and, having conceded 36 tries, the worst defence. This easy come, easy go attitude to scoring must be infuriating the coaches and the giant Dutch winger Tim Visser argued only recently that the team had lost their ruthless edge. He should know.

Visser encapsulates the best and the worst in the club. He is the league's top scorer with ten tries, three of which came in that memorable March victory over the Ospreys, but he was also responsible for gifting the Welsh club two marshmallow-soft scores with crass errors in defence.

When players start falling off tackles the disease spreads faster than smallpox. During Andy Robinson's tenure, Edinburgh were the bull terriers of the league. Now Edinburgh are the patsies and the question remains whether they will be any different next season.

The signs are not encouraging because a young team is about to get a lot younger. Edinburgh's average age at the start of this season was 25 and the club need grizzled veterans to stiffen their spine. Instead, the only signings to date have been amateurs: Alex Blair, Lewis Niven, Stuart McInally, Fraser Brown and Lee Jones. Some will make a big impression, but they are replacing Ally Hogg and Dave Callam, both of whom are understood to be leaving and taking their 59 international caps' worth of experience with them.

If true, it's a bold move by Moffat, who obviously wants to see more ambition from his older players and, on that basis, he could probably jettison a few others. But he has the tricky task of finding suitable replacements. While Glasgow picked up Moseley lock Aly Muldownie, Edinburgh are thought to be talking to his colleague, Ryan Wilson, a big breakaway who has played for Scotland age-grade teams. The impressive Heriot's flanker Michael Maltman is thought to have turned them down in favour of a move south.

Meantime, Moffat must cajole his players out of their current slump and it won't be easy. When he first got the Edinburgh job the suspicion was that he was simply too nice a bloke to make a decent fist of things and those suspicions remain. The best coaches bring with them an element of fear, while Moffat, left, is one of life's natural peacekeepers. He and his assistant Tom Smith are intelligent, empathetic men, but there is a time and a place for exploding in the dressing room, and that time has long passed for this squad. The coaches' careers are on the line because their players lack the mental strength to realise their potential.

"Tom, Nick (Scrivener) and myself try and motivate players," says Moffat. "But players have to be motivated themselves as well, there has to be a massive motivation from each individual player."

In other words, when you are paid handsomely to play professional rugby you are expected to put your body on the line every match, not just occasionally. It's a lesson that Edinburgh's pampered players have yet to learn.

Edinburgh (v Leinster today in the Magners League at the RDS Showground, Dublin. Kick-off 6.15pm): J Thompson; T Visser, B Cairns, N De Luca, M Robertson; P Godman, G Laidlaw; A Jacobsen, R Ford, K Traynor, S MacLeod, S Turnbull, A MacDonald, A Hogg, R Grant. Subs: A Kelly, G Cross, J Hamilton, S Newlands, M Blair or D Blair, J Houston, A Turnbull.