Kiwis' time to bear fruit: do the hosts finally have what it takes to claim the World Cup?

The quadrennial event casts a long shadow over the annual ebb and flow of rugby in a way that was unthinkable before the first World Cup took place in 1987. Coaches are hired on four-year cycles, players wait until the World Cup before retiring and the competition's influence reaches parts of the game you'd not necessarily suspect.

Leinster were missing ten starting players when they ran out at Firhill on Friday evening to play Glasgow because the IRFU is mindful that this year brings the unique challenge of almost 12 months of non-stop rugby. The authorities in Dublin also know that they cannot afford another shambles like the 2007 World Cup when a very good Ireland team, the bulk of which won the Grand Slam in 2009, were pushed all the way by Georgia.

The big one next year represents the final opportunity for Ireland's "golden generation" to make their mark on the world rather than the European stage and the Dublin planners are taking no chances that the ageing Paul O'Connell and Brian O'Driscoll are anything other than well rested. Of course, Graham Henry thought he was doing the same thing when he rested his World Cup squad for a chunk of the Super 14 back in 2007, only to find his side were seriously undercooked when meeting France in Cardiff.

Naturally enough, the All Blacks are favourites to win on home soil but many are licking their lips at the prospect of another New Zealand implosion under the weight of expectation, hope, hunger and desperation that is driving the nation. The Kiwis are peaking nicely, as always, ahead of schedule, but if the best team in world rugby doesn't prove it by winning the World Cup on home soil then you have to think they never will.

The smart teams were preparing for next year's World Cup as soon as the last one finished, especially France, who have the added hurt as the only one of the "big five" in world rugby not to have lifted the William Webb Ellis Trophy.

Coach Marc Lievremont wasted no time in throwing youngsters into the starting line-up in his first ever Test, against Scotland at Murrayfield back in 2008. Chief amongst them was an unfancied fly-half with an exotic name from an unfashionable club. Montpellier's Francois Trinh-Duc has won 22 caps since his debut and on his shoulders rest much of France's World Cup hopes.

Contrast and compare with England's treatment of their own star playmaker. Danny Cipriani enjoyed a miraculous debut against Ireland in the same year where he kicked everything in sight to claim 18 points with the boot while running the entire show.Two years later, the extravagantly gifted player is kicking a football about or posing for the paparazzi before heading off to Melbourne to play Super 15 rugby with the Rebels. You have to think he could have been better managed.

Not that Andy Robinson is complaining, after his Scotland side were drawn alongside England in Pool B with Argentina, Georgia and either Uruguay or Portugal, who meet in a November play-off.

The Scots boast a good record in the tournament, having played more World Cup matches and scored considerably more tries than either Ireland or Wales, and they have never failed to make the quarter-finals, although that record is under threat. Scotland are seeded to finish third in their group. The draw was kind to them because Argentina are easily the weakest of the tier one teams and England are arguably the weakest of all the tier two teams.

Scotland's record under Robinson will give the squad confidence. They have won five, lost four, and that confidence was boosted further when France followed the Scots' historic double over Argentina with a 41-13 loss to the Pumas. France are New Zealand's nemesis; the Pumas have become France's bogey team.

Scotland have no such reason to fear Argentina next year but they write them off at their peril. The injured Juan Martin Hernandez made an impressive appearance off the bench for Racing Metro in the French Top 14 last Wednesday evening and classy full-back Ignacio Corleto is threatening to emerge from retirement for one last hurrah.

Argentina were the revelation of the last World Cup but perhaps we shouldn't have been surprised. Ever since Australia set the standard by conceding exactly one try while winning RWC '99, the World Cup has been dominated by defensive rather than attacking qualities. A big, ugly, muscular forward pack (the ugly bit is optional but recommended) is allied to stern defence and a kicking fly-half; sit back and see how far you go.

The Pumas and England were the obvious beneficiaries of this no-frills, low-risk rugby, although neither could quite match the Springboks, who have written the book and made the film on this style of play. Coach Jake White made the point succinctly with his famous comment: "We are a very good team without the ball." The Boks won the tournament by kicking the ball downfield and letting the opposition make the mistakes.

On that basis, Scotland are in good shape ahead of RWC 2011: Kicking fly-half? Check. Big (ugly) forward pack? Check. Good discipline? Check. Defensive meanness? Check. Everything is in place for the Scots to do well but for one small but potentially crucial item, the latest law interpretation.

In a bid to improve the rugby on show and encourage teams to attack with the ball in hand, referees are now being urged to be strict with tacklers who don't completely release the tackled player before playing the ball.It is supposed to push the breakdown pendulum back in favour of the team in possession of the ball so that sides feel able to run the ball out of defence rather than automatically kicking it.

If this law is enforced properly, it should allow teams to attack with the ball in hand and New Zealand, to take the obvious example, have done just that by scoring 20 tries in their five Tri-Nations matches to date.

If the World Cup is to be won by tries, Scotland are in trouble, having managed six in the last ten Tests.

Of course, New Zealand's free-scoring style may disappear up its own ruck once the tension and nerves that are part of every World Cup hit the players. When France triumphed in Cardiff three years ago, the All Blacks were reduced to forward pick and drives, which anyone would prefer to defend when the alternative is having Ma'a Nonu, Conrad Smith and Mils Muliaina rewrite the rules of geometry in the wide channels.

No one doubts the individual bravery of these players but for the All Blacks to triumph on home soil at RWC '11, they may need courage of a different sort; the courage of their convictions. They have scored 89 more World Cup tries than their nearest rivals and they must persist in attacking with the ball in hand regardless of how high the stakes are. Other teams might beat them at wrestling, but not at running rugby.