Grand National: Experience could be vital for Evan Williams' runner

Aintree's mighty Grand National fences are a law unto themselves, but experience is often the key to the greatest race in the world and I always try to find a short-list of suitable candidates to carry my cash.

Value-for-money odds are vital too as the 40 runners face the 30 mighty obstacles and with many bookmakers paying place money on the first five home this year, the each-way bet is often the best option.

This year I reckon there's no need to look much further than State of Play, who has twice lined up for this prize and twice acquitted himself with honour if failing to actually land the glory.

Two years ago he turned in a fine effort to finish fourth after being badly hampered and losing a prominent position at Becher's Brook on the second circuit.

Twelve months ago he went one better in finishing third after being outpaced entering the final mile before staying on gamely up that long run-in.

Remarkably, he was running off a 5lb lower mark then in spite of his efforts the previous spring and I'm a little bewildered as to how handicapper Phil Smith can drop him again by a further 5lbs again this time as the gelding has not raced in the interim.

There's been no injury or problem for trainer Evan Williams knows that his eleven-year-old hates the mid-winter mud and is much better on a sound surface and when running fresh.

So the plan has always been to save him for what could prove to be a final crack at this prize and with just 10st 4lbs to carry, he certainly has a great chance.

Indeed in five outings at Aintree, State of Play has finished out of the money only once and he does have a victory in a valuable novice event over the smaller Mildmay fences on his CV from his younger days.

True, he may be into the veteran stage now, but he has few miles on the clock having run only two dozen times in the whole of a career which has yielded more than 375,000 in prize money.

His seven victories include the Hennessy Gold Cup in 2006 and he has never fallen in 16 starts over fences. Indeed, the only time he failed to complete the course came when he was pulled up in the 2009 Hennessy.

He did not race after that until his fine third in this race 12 months ago, proving yet again that he is at his best when fresh and at odds of around 25/1, he looks one of the best each-way bets I have ever seen in the world's greatest race.

Vic Venturi is another who has never hit the deck in the whole of his career and he handled these fences with aplomb when winning the 2009 Becher Chase over a circuit and a half of this course on his first trip to Merseyside.

The eleven-year-old was going well just behind the leaders when hampered by a loose horse, unseating his rider at the 20th fence in this last year.

The gelding had won the valuable Bobbyjo Chase at Leopardstown - one of the best of the National trials in Ireland - just before that effort and he caught my eye when finishing fourth in that event six weeks ago.

His shrewd trainer Dessie Hughes has had him laid out for this task all winter and although a 2lb higher mark puts him up near the top of the weights, he will be suited by good ground and can prove best of the Irish challengers - even though the bookies make him a 50/1 shot.

Big Fella Thanks has two fine efforts to his name in the past two years, finishing sixth behind 100/1 winner Mon Mome in 2009 and fourth last year - his only starts so far over these fences.

So we know that the gelding can jump, the question is his stamina for he faded badly in the final half mile two years ago after being right in the firing line with just two fences left to jump.

It was a similar story 12 months ago, but the ground may ride a bit quicker this time as the forecast is for sunshine and breezes and that may help. He also changed stables after last year's effort and is now trained in Yorkshire by Ferdy Murphy - a master at producing a horse in tip-top shape for the big day.

Furthermore, his stable jockey Graham Lee is a dab hand at riding a waiting race as shown when he won this on Amberleigh House a few years ago, so at odds of around 20/1, I expect Big Fella Thanks to be right there again.

The final member of my short list is Bluesea Cracker. She has no experience of Aintree and mares have a poor record in this race, but that statistic may well not reflect the fact that very few run in it.

Bluesea Cracker is the only one of her sex in the line-up tomorrow, but I reckon she can produce a big run. Her stamina looks proven as she won last year's Irish National over 3m 5f and a race which is always run at a frenetic pace.

But she glided through the Fairyhouse mayhem and although jockey Andrew Mcnamara dropped his whip before the final fence, she still had more than four lengths to spare over Oscar Time at the line.

McNamara has won twice from three rides on the mare who was having her first outing for three months when 6th in a leading trial at Fairyhouse in February. She will be fit to run for her life tomorrow and odds of around 22/1 suggest she is a fair each-way wager.

USE this guide to run your own sweepstake. Cut out the horses' names for the draw and record who picks which horse by putting their name next to that number in the column on the left.