Winning the qualifying group to reach the World Cup finals in 2014 must be Craig Levein’s target

THE good news for Scotland as they prepare for the qualifying campaign for the 2014 World Cup is that there is no-one in their group of the quality of Spain or the Netherlands. The bad news is that the overall strength of the opposition looks greater than the past two campaigns.

Consisting of Croatia, Serbia, Macedonia, Belgium and Wales as well as Scotland, Group A may not contain any world-beaters – the Croatians are the only ones to have even reached the play-offs for Euro 2012. But nor does it include any team as lowly as Liechtenstein or Iceland, the sides which finished last in our last two unsuccessful attempts to qualify for a major tournament.

Wales, the bottom seeds in the group, recovered well from a poor start to their Euro 2012 campaign, and have won two of their last three meetings with Scotland. Croatia and Serbia are challenging opponents anywhere, Macedonia won at home the last time they played Scotland, and the free-scoring Belgians are another team who seem to be making progress.

Craig Levein believes the same of his own squad, of course – but it will be the manager and his SFA colleagues who will be put to the test first when the fixtures meeting for the group takes place, in Brussels on 23 November. There are two straightforward rules to follow when the Scottish party sit down to agree the schedule for the qualifiers, which begin on 7 September next year and go on until 15 October 2013: don’t agree to play in the Balkans in summer, and don’t leave your most difficult fixture until last.

With eight six-team groups and one of five teams, the qualifying format for Brazil 2014 is similar to Euro 2012, with one significant difference. This time there is no automatic qualification for the best runner-up, and no guarantee of a play-off place for every team which comes second. Instead, the worst runner-up is eliminated, with the other eight all going into play-offs.

On paper, that will make World Cup Group A marginally tougher than Euro Group I was, but it should also help simplify our thinking. This time, let’s not go into the campaign making calculations about how many points would be enough for a second place. The aim should be to win the group.

Yes, the competition will be cut-throat, and some of the games will be ugly scraps. But the opportunity is there for a team – probably any team other than the Macedonians – to take command by getting off to a confidence-boosting start.

Even allowing for some scepticism about Levein’s assertion of progress, it is clear that the state of his squad offers grounds for hope. Certainly, the age and ability of the players the manager has called on this year means there will be no need for a full-scale overhaul between now and next September.

Of the 14 players involved in Tuesday night’s defeat by Spain, only Gary Caldwell will have passed his 30th birthday by then. Of the others selected by Levein over the past few months, only Kenny Miller, Stephen Crainey and Barry Robson come into that category, with just Miller being a regular pick. Key squad members such as Darren Fletcher and Scott Brown will be 28 and 27 respectively, and a host of others are significantly younger.

What is more, compared to squads of the recent past, these players are, in general, playing their club football at a higher level. No longer is the bulk of the team coming from the English Championship or lower. Fletcher and Charlie Adam are playing for the biggest clubs south of the Border; Scott Brown and Allan McGregor, among others, for Scotland’s big two.

The days when James McFadden was the sole source of inspiration are long gone. This squad has the potential to get better, and it is up to Levein to realise it over the 13 months of the qualifying campaign.