What Scotland need to qualify for Euro 2024 this week as Spain and Norway try to hunt them down

Scotland hope to qualify for Euro 2024 this week.

Scotland are in Group A of the qualifiers alongside Cyprus, Georgia, Norway and Spain. Steve Clarke’s team have an 100 per cent record after playing five games and will hope to secure their place in the finals next summer in Germany by the time this weekend is out. There are a few scenarios that can land Scotland their golden ticket and we will talk you through them here.

Scotland play one qualifier this week, while the rest of the teams in Group A have two. Only Scotland, Spain and Norway can qualify, and the table looks like this going into the matches:

1 Scotland – 15pts, +11, played 5

2 Spain – 9pts, +13, played 4

3 Norway – 7pts, -1, played 5

4 Georgia – 4pts, -8, played 5

5 Cyprus – 0pts, -15, played 5

The earliest Scotland can qualify is on Thursday night. The Scots are in Seville to face Spain, while at the same time Norway are in Larnaca to play Cyprus. If Scotland either win or draw at the Estadio de la Cartuja, they will secure qualification, while a defeat could be enough depending on what happens in Cyprus. If Norway fail to beat the Cypriots, then they cannot catch Scotland as they would remain on seven points with only six points available to them. As the deficit with Scotland is eight points, not even a draw is good enough for Erling Haaland and Co.

A Spain-Scotland draw and a Norway win would make things slightly complicated in terms of arithmetic but the bottom line is that Scotland reaching 16 points is the magic number. There is a scenario – incredibly far-fetched as it is – whereby Scotland, Spain and Norway all finish on 16 points, with the teams in that trio having one superiority each in head-to-head results and goal difference. Should that utterly ridiculous scenario occur, then all three teams are put in a mini-league and the results between them used. Scotland would be on seven points (a win and draw against Spain, a win against Norway) and would therefore progress, as Spain would only be on four points (win against Norway, draw against Scotland) given they would have lost to Norway to get to this juncture in the first place. The Norwegians’ maximum haul in that breakout league would be six (wins against Scotland and Norway), so Scotland would progress as group winners.

The Norwegians are warm favourites to defeat Cyprus, however, so the likelihood is that Scotland will need to get a positive result in Spain to get the job done. However, if they don’t, there will be a second opportunity on Sunday, when Scotland are off the pitch, in France preparing for a friendly in Lille on October 17. Norway host Spain in Oslo on October 15 at 7.45pm and if they fail to win there, then Scotland’s place at Euro 2024 is guaranteed.

Should the worst happen and Norway win their two matches this week and Scotland lose in Spain, then Clarke’s men would have to wait until the next international window in November to seal qualification, when they face Georgia away and Norway at home.

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that ...