What Scotland need to qualify for Euro 2024 and how it could go to final match v Norway at Hampden

A night that promised much failed to deliver for Scotland as a 3-1 defeat to England at Hampden coincided with hopes of officially qualifying for Euro 2024 being put on the backburner.

Scotland’s pre-match optimism was found to be misplaced as Steve Clarke’s men were thoroughly outclassed by their neighbours from south of the border in a match to mark the 150th anniversary of the first meeting of the two nations back in 1872.

Goals from Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham had England two ahead at the break, and while an own goal from half-time substitute Harry Maguire sparked hopes of a Scotland fightback, a late Harry Kane strike sealed the victory for Gareth Southgate’s side.

There was double disappointment for the Tartan Army regarding events in Oslo where a 2-1 win for Norway over Georgia prevented, or at the very least delayed, Scotland securing their place at the European Championships in Germany next year.

Scotland captain Andy Robertson after the 3-1 defeat to England at Hampden on Tuesday. (Photo by Ross MacDonald / SNS Group)

Had that match finished in a draw then Scotland would have booked their place at the tournament with three games to spare but goals from Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard have kept the Scandinavians in with a slim chance of catching them.

Scotland remain in a strong position at the top of Euro 2024 qualifying Group A with a maximum 15 points from five matches – eight more than Norway – but they may still have work to do to secure the top two-finish required for automatic qualification.

Essentially, there are now two scenarios whereby Scotland could secure their place in Germany – either under their own steam or by Norway dropping points.

Scotland will be home and hosed if they draw their next match away to Spain on October 12 – a tall order against the top seeds as Clarke’s men look to follow up their stunning Hampden win in March with another momentous result in Seville.

Such a result would move Scotland onto 16 points and there would be no combination of results in the remaining fixtures which would see both Norway and Spain overtake them due to the fact one, or both, have to drop points to each other. It would also give Scotland a chance of winning the group and earning top seed status for the Euros.

Even if Scotland were to lose to Spain they will still be guaranteed a top-two finish if Norway fail to win in Cyprus on the same night or fail to beat Spain at home three days later. The latter match against the Spaniards would seem the most likely circumstance in which the Norwegians would slip up meaning the 7.45pm kick-off in Oslo on Sunday, October 15 is a date for Scotland fans to put in the diary.

If a Euro 2024 place is not confirmed in October – by Scotland losing to Spain then Norway beating Spain – then everything moves onto the final set of qualifiers in November where a win over Georgia on the 16th would finally clinch it.

The nerve-shredding scenario that the Tartan Army would be desperate to avoid would involve Scotland losing their next two matches, and Norway winning both, which would set up a blockbuster final showdown with Haaland and co at Hampden on November 19 for a place in the Euros.

Should that happen, Scotland would go into the match on 15 points with Norway two behind on 13. Norway, with arguably the world’s best striker leading their attack, would then just need to win at Hampden to claim their place at the Euros at Scotland’s expense, assuming Spain finish above both.

Should Scotland pick up one point in Georgia, the best Norway could achieve would be to draw level with them on 16 points providing they win all their remaining matches.

That would put Scotland in a stronger position for the group finale as Norway would then need to win at Hampden by two clear goals – or by a one-goal margin providing they score three or more – to better Scotland in the head-to-head meetings between the two nations.

A 2-1 for Norway would cancel out the 2-1 win for Scotland in Oslo in June and mean that the tiebreaker would revert to goal difference in all group matches which is currently strongly in favour of Scotland who are +11 compared to Norway’s -1.

That all being said, Scotland are rated 99.1 per cent likely to qualify for Euro 2024 by statistical experts so it would take a highly unlikely set of results – and for the glorious failure tendencies of the past to reach new heights – for Scotland to be denied their ticket to Germany.