Third may be good enough

So let’s enjoy the agonies of this qualifying campaign while we can. Next time round, it will be all too easy for Scotland to make it to the finals. Won’t it?

Well, it will on paper. The current qualifying system, with groups of five or six teams, will remain in place. That means that unless Uefa introduce any quirky late changes, the top two in each group should go straight into the finals in France, with teams which come third going into the play-offs.

One complicating factor this time was that Euro 2012 has two hosts, Poland and Ukraine, which meant there were only 14 qualifying slots. In four years’ time, with the French being sole hosts, 23 slots will be available. The simplest way of filling them will be for the winners, runners-up and best third-placed team in each of the nine groups to go through, taking up 19 places. That would leave four, to be contested by the eight remaining third-placed teams.

We can do that, can’t we? Second place may look out of reach this time after the draw with the Czechs, but third place is still very achievable, is it not?

Of course, after tomorrow night we have to think again about that. Defeat by Lithuania is by no means unthinkable, and then the national team could be fighting it out with Liechtenstein for fourth place in our five-team group.

And anyway, we all know to our emotional cost that, no matter the method of qualifying, Scotland can be relied upon to make it difficult for themselves. Contriving new ways to fail has been a national pastime for decades now, at least since 1974 when we were the only undefeated team at the World Cup but did not get out of the group stages. So it may be safer to start lobbying now to get a 32-team finals in place for Euro 2020.

Third may be good enough – next time