Scotland's European light flickering as Celtic, Rangers, Aberdeen and coefficient face crunch time
Do-or-die week for Scottish clubs’ hopes of progressing in Europe
There is no other way to dress it up. This has been a miserable season for Scottish clubs in Europe.
It started promisingly with praiseworthy performances from both Hibs and Dundee United in the qualifying rounds. Both, however, ultimately ended in failure, leaving just three clubs - Celtic, Rangers and Aberdeen - to carry the torch, the light from which is already close to flickering out at the halfway stage of their respective competitions.
After outdoing each other in their hapless attempts to reach the Champions League, the notion that Celtic and Rangers dropping into the Europa League might be better for the Scottish coefficient has so far proven misguided with only one victory between the Glasgow pair in eight matches thus far. The coefficient is suffering to the extent that the outlook is already bleak for future seasons unless results improve considerably.
As reported by Gavin Noon of Scotland’s Coefficient, Scotland have dropped from a high of ninth at the end of the 2022-23 season to 18th in the UEFA coeffecient table. The country needs to climb the rankings again to retain the five European places currently on offer along with the guarantee of league phase football certain clubs have enjoyed in recent campaigns. However, things are heading in the opposite direction. Scotland are the 36th best performing nation this season, scoring fewer coefficient points than Gibraltar, Armenia, North Macedonia, Iceland, Israel, Finland, Kosovo, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Romania and Azerbaijan.
Rangers facing improbable task
Rangers - the previous coefficient kings - have been the worst culprits after taking zero points from their opening four Europa League matches which has left them rock bottom of the 36-team table and in the last chance saloon in the bid to qualify for the play-off round.
Ten points was enough for three clubs to progress to the Europa League knockout stage last season, however, that tally appears less likely to secure a top 24 finish this time due to fewer drawn matches overall. Rangers may therefore need the maximum 12 points still up for grabs to qualify, starting with a win over Braga at Ibrox on Thursday, followed by victories away to both Ferencvaros and Porto, and at home to Ludogorets in between. On current form that would seem improbable, but the focus for Danny Rohl will be on restoring pride and securing the superior prize money on offer from improved results (€450,000 per win) to put towards some much-needed January reinforcements.
Celtic need points from toughest stretch
Celtic's Europa League campaign to date has been better, although anything but impressive. Four points from four matches is less than was expected from away matches against Red Star Belgrade and Midtjylland and home games against Braga and Sturm Graz. It has left them 27th in the standings ahead of their toughest stretch on paper - away to Feyenoord on Thursday followed by Roma at Celtic Park then a trip to Bologna before the calendar year is out.
Celtic need a minimum of four points from those next three games to put themselves in a position to potentially secure qualification when they host Utrecht in a winnable home finale. A point in Rotterdam this week against a Feyenoord side who have lost their last three matches could go a long way and will provide a platform for incoming new manager Wilfried Nancy to build from.
Aberdeen need a monumental effort
Aberdeen have reached the halfway mark in the Conference League - where only six rounds of fixtures are played - with just a single point to their name thanks to a goalless draw at AEK Larnaca last time out. The Dons, who are languishing down in 33rd place, put up a decent fight in a 3-2 home defeat to Shakhtar Donetsk in their league opener but were then lambs to the slaughter in a 6-0 defeat to AEK Athens in Greece on matchday two - a result which could come back to bite them should goal difference become a determining factor in the bid to secure a top 24 finish.
The weekend 1-0 win over Premiership leaders Hearts shows that Jimmy Thelin's side are becoming a more solid unit, and they should be looking at a home match against Armenian side FC Noah on Thursday as a chance to chalk up a first win in the Conference League and keep themselves in contention for qualification to the knockout phase with potentially only one more win required.
Seven points wasn't enough for Hearts last year but it was for four other clubs who finished with a better goal difference. That has to be the target for the Dons, but with Strasbourg visiting Pittodrie next month, before the final match away to Sparta Prague, it will take a monumental effort over the next month to bring European football to the Granite City beyond Christmas for the first time since 2008.
With the prospect of fewer places, more qualifying rounds to negotiate and no guarantees of league phase football, keeping any of our clubs in Europe beyond August may prove the bigger concern in years to come.
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