Levein must hold nothing back in last-chance saloon

THE conclusion to Saturday’s game at Hampden was grim, but, as we look ahead to tomorrow night’s game against Lithuania, it has at least had one positive effect. The minds of the players and the coach will now be totally focused on victory in what has become a sudden-death encounter.

That may be scant consolation after the 2-2 draw with the Czechs, but for the longer-term development of the squad it can be no bad thing for them to be thrown into a game which they simply have to win. Craig Levein insisted on Saturday that his team had tried to get forward “at every opportunity” and at times had even committed too many men to attack, but cautiousness has always played a big part in the former centre-half’s approach to the game, and he has invariably resisted the impulse to go for broke.

For as long as Scotland have had a chance of keeping their qualification hopes alive for another game, they have always seemed to hold a little back. Scrimp a point here, save another there, has been the miserly attitude: understandable to an extent given we do not have a squad of world-beaters, but frustrating nonetheless for those of us who remain prey to the foolish old illusion that the point of football is to win – and with as much style as possible.

Style may appear to be of secondary importance tomorrow, when the game will be all about getting the three points to keep our Euro 2012 hopes alive. But, while there will be no room for trickery for its own sake, a degree of swagger will be no bad thing. Levein’s team are unlikely to overpower the Lithuanians physically: instead, it will be superior football that wins the day, with our most technically gifted players more likely to make the difference than our foot soldiers.

Scotland are in a qualifying group, run on a league basis, but this game is as close to a proper cup-tie as they will get until they at last succeed in qualifying for the finals of a major tournament. If that means abandoning Levein’s cherished 4-5-1 formation, even if only for part of the match, so be it.

That line-up has been successful up to a point, and was certainly not responsible for the outcome against the Czechs. At its best, with two wide men breaking quickly in support of the sole striker, it is tantamount to a 4-3-3, so is not inescapably defensive.

But it can, and usually does, restrict the opportunities available to the lone front man, as was clear on Saturday. Kenny Miller had one of his finest games for Scotland, scoring the first goal and laying on the second for Darren Fletcher, but we had virtually no other attempt on goal, either on or off target. Converting a high percentage of your chances is a virtue, but one which Scotland are not always able to practise. For the same return of two goals against Lithuania, it is far more plausible that five or six real chances will have to be created.

If Levein’s team are to do so, that will demand that one of two things happens. First, with Miller suspended, his replacement will need a better supply from midfield – by no means an impossible order given the Lithuanians’ inferiority to the Czechs in that department. Second, Scotland have to be prepared to put another man up front.

The most economical way to do that, while still allowing Levein the maximum scope for change on the bench, is probably to start with Steven Naismith wide in a 4-5-1, as he played on Saturday, then move him forward to change the formation into a 4-4-2. David Goodwillie, an unused substitute two days ago, can be a handful for any defence even when deployed on his own up front, and particularly on the counter-attack. But it is to be hoped that Scotland will not be restricted to counter-attacking tomorrow, and, with less space in which to use his speed off the mark, the Blackburn striker could do with the likes of Naismith as a foil.

Goodwillie’s mental strength could prove as important as his physical fortitude. The Czechs’ late equaliser from the penalty spot was a body blow to the squad, and no matter how much time and effort Levein puts in to lifting their spirits, there are sure to be a few tomorrow who still feel low. The militant competitiveness of Goodwillie could play a critical role in reviving them.

One thing Levein got right on Saturday was his resolution to move on as quickly as possible from the controversy which marred the end of the game. The coach, his players and around 50,000 supporters were enraged by the referee’s decision to award a penalty to the Czechs then deny one to Scotland moments later, despite the similarity of both incidents. But within minutes of full-time, Levein had calmed himself down and begun to do the same to his squad. It is futile at any time to blame a referee for a result, but with another match looming so soon it was particularly important on this occasion that Levein should tell his players to resist any temptation to indulge in self-pity.