Scotland dealt further World Cup blow by surprise result - what Scots need in third-place race for last 32
South Africa take down South Korea to put Group A ahead of Scots’ section
Scotland’s hopes of reaching the last 32 of the World Cup as one of the eight best third-placed teams took a blow overnight after South Africa recorded a surprise victory over South Korea.
After losing 3-0 to Brazil in Miami to conclude their Group C campaign, Scotland have been forced to wait for the other sections to conclude and keep their fingers crossed that results go their way.
Scotland are on three points with a -3 goal difference and had already been overtaken by Bosnia & Herzegovina in Group B, who defeated Qatar 3-1 to take third place with four points. The victory for South Africa in Guadeloupe was most unwelcome as it put another side ahead of the Scots in the third-placed rankings.
The South Africans won 1-0 thanks to Thapelo Maseko’s strike in the second half. That moved them into second spot in Group A and demoted South Korea into third on three points with a goal difference of -1 - two better than Scotland.
Clarke’s men head back to their Charlotte basecamp to watch the rest of the group stage play out. They need four third-placed teams to finish worse off than them - we set out what Scotland need from each pool below.
Should Scotland finish in the top eight, they will then discover who they play. A match against Mexico in Mexico City on July 1 at 2am or a game against Germany in Boston on June 29 at 9.30pm are the most likely fixtures.
Third-placed standings
| Team | Played | Points | Goals scored | Goals against | Goal difference |
| Bosnia | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 |
| Sweden | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Croatia | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| South Korea | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Algeria | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| Paraguay | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| SCOTLAND | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 |
| Cape Verde | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Belgium | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| DR Congo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Ecuador | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Senegal | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -3 |
Group D
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| USA | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| Australia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Paraguay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| Turkey | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Friday, 3am: Turkey v USA (Los Angeles) and Paraguay v Australia (Santa Clara).
What Scotland want: The USA v Turkey game is irrelevant but the Australia v Paraguay game is not. An Australia win by two goals is needed, leaving Paraguay on three points in third with at least a -4 goal difference.
What Scotland don’t want: Australia and Paraguay draw, leaving the third-placed Paraguayans on four points, or an Australia win by one goal.
Group E
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Germany | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| Ivory Coast | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Ecuador | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| Curacao | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
Thursday, 9pm: Curacao v Ivory Coast (Philadelphia) and Ecuador v Germany (New Jersey).
What Scotland want: Simple. Germany and Ivory Coast to avoid defeat, leaving Ecuador in third on two points.
What Scotland don’t want: There are a few dangers here. If Ecuador or Curacao both win, then the fourth-placed team is guaranteed to have four points. If Curacao are the only of the pair to prevail, then the Ivorians would be third on three points with a negative goal difference and would need to lose by four goals to slip beneath Scotland. If Ecuador win and Ivory Coast win or draw, then the third-placed team would have four points.
Group F
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Netherlands | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 |
| Japan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 |
| Sweden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Tunisia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Friday, 12am: Tunisia v Netherlands (Kansas City) and Japan v Sweden (Arlington).
What Scotland want: Tunisia are guaranteed to finish bottom so we don’t have any skin the game with their match against the Dutch. In relation to third, it’s all about Japan v Sweden. A Japanese victory by four goals is needed to leave Sweden on three points with a -4 goal difference.
What Scotland don’t want: Sweden to avoid defeat against the Japanese. That would leave the third-placed team on four points. Or if they lose by a margin of up to three goals, as they would remain ahead of Scotland.
Group G
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Egypt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| Iran | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Belgium | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| New Zealand | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Saturday, 4am: New Zealand v Belgium (Vancouver) and Egypt v Iran (Seattle).
What Scotland want: Egypt to beat Iran and New Zealand to defeat or draw with Belgium, leaving the third-placed team on two points.
What Scotland don’t want: If Iran draw with Egypt, then the third-placed team is guaranteed to have three points with a goal difference of zero. If there is a win for the Iranians and a win for either Belgium or New Zealand, the third-placed team would have four points.
Group H
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Spain | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 4 |
| Uruguay | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cape Verde | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
Saturday, 1am: Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia (Houston) and Uruguay v Spain (Zapopan)
What Scotland want: The key result here is Spain beating Uruguay. If that happens, the third-placed team is guaranteed to have two points.
What Scotland don’t want: If Uruguay avoid defeat against Spain then the third-placed team - either them or Cape Verde - would have three points and a goal difference of zero. A win for Uruguay and a victory for either Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia would leave the third-placed team on four points.
Group I
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| Norway | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| Senegal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| Iraq | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Friday, 8pm: Norway v France (Foxborough) and Senegal v Iraq (Toronto).
What Scotland want: France v Norway has no bearing on third. It’s all about Senegal v Iraq. Draw, please.
What Scotland don’t want: If Senegal win, they will be on three points with at worst, a goal difference of -2. A 3-0 Iraq win would also put them above Scotland.
Group J
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Argentina | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| Austria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Algeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| Jordan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Sunday, 3am: Algeria v Austria (Kansas City) and Jordan v Argentina (Arlington).
What Scotland want: Argentina will finish top and Jordan are bottom, so that match is inconsequential to this. Algeria v Austria, however, isn’t. The best outcome would be at least a two-goal Austrian win to leave Algeria on three points and a goal difference of -4 or worse. If Algeria win, it needs to be a six-goal defeat. But whatever happens, the third-placed team in this group will finish with at least three points.
Nightmare scenario: A draw, because it would leave Algeria in third on four points, or an Algeria win. As the last match of the group stages, both teams will have the advantage of knowing exactly what is required in the third-place battle ...
Group K
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| Colombia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| Portugal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| DR Congo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| Uzbekistan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Sunday, 3am: Colombia v Portugal (Miami) and DR Congo v Uzbekistan (Atlanta)
What Scotland want: The game to watch from a Scottish perspective is DR Congo v Uzbekistan. A draw here is the most favourable outcome, as it would leave DR Congo in third on two points.
What Scotland don’t want: If DR Congo win, then the third-placed team in this group would have four points. An Uzbekistan win by four goals or more would move them into third on to three points and a goal difference of -3, having scored more than Scotland.
Group L
| Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goal diff | Points | |
| England | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| Ghana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| Panama | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Saturday, 10pm: Panama v England (New Jersey) and Croatia v Ghana (Philadelphia).
What Scotland want: The third-placed team in this group is guaranteed to finish on three points. So from that perspective, Scotland want Ghana to win by three goals or more to leave Croatia with a poor goal difference. A Croatia win by five goals would also be okay.
What Scotland don’t want: A draw between Ghana and Croatia would leave the Croats in third on four points.
What are the most likely outcomes to help Scotland?
Ecuador are not favoured to beat Germany and Curacao would need to upset the odds against Ivory Coast, so Group E could be one that helps Scotland out.
In Group H, Spain are odds-on to defeat Uruguay, which would guarantee that group has a third-placed finisher on two points.
An Egypt win against Iran in Group G is also plausible, although the Egyptians are pretty much certain to have qualified before kick-off.
After that, we are looking at Senegal failing to beat Iraq in Group I and DR Congo failing to do the same against Uzbekistan in Group K.
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