How Scotland can qualify for Euro 2024 and the Seville hoodoo Steve Clarke must break to clinch it

Seville is a city associated with strong aromas. Orange blossom in the Spring, jasmine most of the year round. Also, sadly, also the scent of failure if you happen to be a Scottish football fan.

A far more pleasant fragrance has nevertheless been carried across the old town battlements on a soft Autumn breeze on this latest visit: Germany 2024.

Scottish supporters – around 8,000 have made the journey – can smell another major finals in the air. Spanish fans too, no doubt. And it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world if the two sides meeting tonight in the Andalusian capital finish first and second in Group A, with just the order to be settled.

That might or might not put a lid on the squabbling that frames tonight’s Group A fixture and dominated the aftermath of the previous meeting in March. “Tomorrow is very important, it is crucial,” said Spain manager Luis de la Fuente last night. “Winning tomorrow opens up our qualification.”

Scotland manager Steve Clarke oversees a training session at Lesser Hampden ahead of the trip to Spain. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

He showed the respect to Scotland that the likes of Rodri failed to do after Hampden. Spain have become a better side since then. But so too, in his opinion, have Scotland, who subsequently gained a statement win against Norway in Oslo.

Clarke’s side are unarguably closer than their hosts to next summer’s finals. Although, as is the case in Seville’s wide avenues, it can still seem a long way to the other side of the street. Crossing is hazardous. Scotland will need their wits about them in a stadium where Spain have never lost a competitive fixture.

There’s a sense of calmness in knowing that Steve Clarke’s at the wheel. Jose Luis Sanz, the recently elected mayor of Seville, has declared a war on nudity in an attempt to counter wanton stag-party bacchanalia. But it’s not possible to outlaw bare facts, one of which is news to some people. If goalkeeper Angus Gunn keeps a clean sheet this evening, then even the ultra-cautious Clarke will permit some frolicking – but no nudity – in one of Seville’s many fountains. Hell, he might even jump in himself.

A draw tonight is definitely sufficient on account of Uefa regulation, as no team will be able to better Scotland’s total of 16 points, only match it. And Scotland will have the best-head-to-head record between themselves, Norway and Spain.

Scotland captain Andy Robertson holds court during a training session on Wednesday. (Photo by Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)

But a sixth successive Group A victory – and 12th in total in qualifying games – is a far more beguiling prospect and would hand Clarke something else to distinguish his reign. Not since Dundee United defeated Barcelona in the Uefa Cup in 1987 has a Scottish side won in Spain.

Seville has been a particular cemetery of hopes. Clarke’s side must face down a hex that’s speared many Scottish teams in the past, stretching back to when Rangers played here in 1962 in the Cup-Winners’ Cup and lost 2-0 to Seville. They did at least win on aggregate thanks to a 4-0 win at Ibrox in the first leg. Since then, Seville has become a city of Scottish sighs. Of dreams cruelly dashed. See Seville and ..well, suffer.

Seven games, no wins. Even when Rangers drew in the Europa League final last year against Eintracht Frankfurt, they lost. Penalties have brought no relief. Nor did extra time in the case of Celtic at the same stage of the same competition in 2003 against Porto.

Seville is a city where Scotland have learned the folly of making the opposition angry, no more so than when a Davie Narey shot whistled past Waldir Peres in June 1982. It was the toe-poke heard all around the world before Brazil remembered they had a World Cup finals group game to win and flashed four goals beyond Alan Rough.

Scotland's Dave Narey (right) opens the scoring against Brazil at the 1982 World Cup in Seville.

Jimmy Hill’s famous remark was interpreted as a slight by Scots. But it was never that – and anyway, was it not a bit of a toe-poke? A toe-poke into the top corner – or scuffed across the line – will be acceptable tonight providing it secures the result Scotland require to get them to Germany in the national side’s first visit to Seville since a World Cup qualifier in 1985.

That was a similar scenario to now. Scotland were defending a 100 per cent record in the group and Spain were desperate to atone for a two-goal defeat at Hampden. Take the game to Seville was the cry and Scotland, who lost Kenny Dalglish on the eve of the game due to flu, fell 1-0 on a night when goalkeeper Jim Leighton was bombarded by oranges as well as a half-loaf of bread.

It might be a different stadium this time but the same logic applies. Seville equals success for Spain and guarantees a hostile welcome for the visitors, although Estadio de Cartuja's stands are a long way from the pitch due to a running track. Hampden without the history, in other words.

“I think it is a stadium they use quite often,” noted Clarke in reference to a ground built for an Olympics bid and which forms a rather charmless structure on the outskirts of an otherwise beautiful city. “I think they enjoy playing here. I am not sure it is any indication or a mark of respect for us."

Despite Spain’s travails against Scotland, there was an unmistakable confidence detected from not only Fuentes and Jesus Navas, the 37-year-old wing-back who plays for Sevilla and hails from the local area, but also the reporters at the team’s pre-match press conference. Spaniards fully expect qualification to be secured with two games to spare on Sunday.

It was the same in 1985. “Spain, not Scotland, are favourites in this group," said striker Emilio Butragueno, nicknamed the Vulture, before the game. "Although they are difficult opponents, we will be in Mexico for the finals.”

He got that right. But then, crucially, so too were Scotland.