Celtic's European hopes don't just lie in Madrid: eyes cast 1200 miles away, cloud cuckoo land Champions League scenario, weapons

A dose of realism is required when assessing Celtic’s prospects in their Champions League group ahead of their latest assignment.

When applied it gives rise to a belief that the Group E fixture on Tuesday evening with the capacity to shape their destiny in Europe this season will take place 1,200 miles from where Brendan Rodgers’ side find themselves. Even if the Scottish champions excelled in their 2-2 draw at home to Atletico Madrid a fortnight ago, merely being again able to match the Spaniards in their Metropolitano Stadium looks highly unlikely. Not least when you consider that Diego Simeone’s men have won all six of their matches in the domain this season. A sequence that includes a 3-1 success over Real Madrid little more than six weeks ago.

At the halfway stage of their group campaign, Celtic sit bottom of their section on one point, three behind Lazio … a deficit owed to the Italians’ jammiest of 2-1 victories in Glasgow’s east end last month. Meanwhile, Feyenoord top it with six points, one more than Atletico. The upshot of these respective returns is that the outcome of Lazio’s joust with the Dutch side in Rome has the capacity to be more pivotal to what immediately lies ahead for Celtic in continental competition than their endeavours in Madrid. If the unwanted, but expected, happens against Atletico, as Lazio post a victory, Rodgers’ men would be in a desperate position. They would then be five points behind Feyenoord, and six adrift of the Italians, before they travel to Rome and then host the Dutch club.

In this scenario, even finishing with two wins from these encounters wouldn’t necessarily prevent them ending up bottom of the Group E pile. A finish that would deny them the third-place finish required to secure a place in the last 16 Europa League play-offs. Feyenoord host Atletico at the end of the month. If they lost to Lazio but then took anything when hosting the Spaniards, they would be out of reach of Celtic, irrespective of other results. Likewise for the Italians if they coupled a Feyenoord success with escaping undefeated from their Madrid final encounter. However, following a Lazio win over the Dutch club this week, If Atletico and Celtic were to beat both over the next five weeks, the Scottish champions would pip Feyenoord to third, and would claim second if winning by two goals in Rome.

Celtic striker Kyogo Furuhashi's brilliant opener in the 2-2 draw with Atletico Madrid in Glasgow showed Brendan Rodgers men could hurt the Spaniards. Now they must be mindful of how they could be hurt by more than their hosts on Tuesday evening. (Photo by Craig Foy / SNS Group)

Following the Rotterdam side’s 3-1 win at home to Lazio, there must be the chance of them completing a double over Maurizio Sarri’s men this week. Should they do so, then Celtic would still require to beat the Italians to remain in the hunt for the Europa League parachute, as a draw would mean they could only match their points total with a poorer head-to-head record. The permutations would not be greatly altered if a draw were to result from tomorrow’s confrontation in Rome’s Olympic stadium. Well, in one sense. Celtic and Atletico then winning their fnal two games would see Rodgers men finish two points ahead of Lazio for a guaranteed third place. And in that scenario, if they bettered the 2-0 scoreline from their loss in Rotterdam when entertaining Feyenoord, they would be back in the last 16 of the Champions League for the first time since 2012-13.

Of course, if keen to set up residence in cloud cuckoo land, as it stands Celtic’s fate is entirely in their own hands. If they won their three remaining games, they would be assured a top two finish in Group E. Of course, the only problem with luxuriating in this nirvana is that it goes completely against their real world history in the Champions League. Currently contesting their 12th group campaign, Celtic have never won three-in-a-row in the competition. Moreover, beating Atletico in Spain – where the club have never won in European competition across their 21 times playing on that nation’s soil – would represent their biggest result in the blue riband tournament. It would eclipse the 2-1 win at home to Barcelona in 2012 because Celtic’s away form is so wretched. In unfamiliar territory, they have only avoided defeat on three occasions when facing up to teams from the big five leagues. A trio of 1-1 draws, against Barcelona in 2004, and Borussia Monchengladbach and Manchester City in 2017, these all-too-rare instances. What they reveal is that Celtic have never beaten a European heavyweight in their own backyard.

It must be said that they have rarely performed more adroitly against such an opponent in their own environs than they did in twice taking the lead against Simeone’s men in a pulsating evening at Celtic Park. Truly, it was intoxicating to see Rodgers’ side prove themselves a technical and tactical equal to a leading light in La Liga. Even if the monumental application required for this left them out on their feet for a spell during the second half. Atletico were unable to capitalise on their opponents’ energy reserves draining. However, were tomorrow’s encounter to pan out in similar fashion, it is inconceivable they would not summon up a more destructive edge when driven on by a bawling, demanding 60,000-plus home crowd in the Metropolitano.

On the upside for Celtic, Rodgers will be able to field an XI with the muscle memory of making Atletico seriously doubt themselves. He turned to Paulo Bernardo when Reo Hatate was forced off inside four minutes of the Glasgow encounter, and will likely see no reason to deviate from line-up into which the on-loan Benfica midfielder slotted comfortably. The Portugal Under-21 international’s bustle, defensive screening and Iberian schooling potentially making him a neater fit for the Madrid assignment than the more languid – though also more lethal – David Turnbull. As Kyogo Furuhashi, Luis Palma and Matt O’Riley demonstrated in the clubs’ first meeting, Celtic have weapons to hurt Simeone’s men. The apprehension comes in how much they could be hurt by the home team. And a result in Rome.