Five reasons why St Mirren fans should be very worried about their team

Craig Fowler takes a look at the problems with St Mirren as Jim Goodwin's side go into this weekend's clash with St Johnstone off the back of six games without victory.
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Against Hearts, the Buddies started with Junior Morais as the lone attacker with Tony Andreu in support. Both players are listed at 5'10'', so of course the hosts spent the majority of the first half shelling long balls towards them. That wouldn't have come as a surprise to the St Mirren faithful, who've witnessed their side rack up 489 long balls so far this campaign, the second highest in the Ladbrokes Premiership. Livingston have attempted more, but they have utilised the tactic to success with Lyndon Dykes (by far and away the league leader in aerial duels) an effective target man unlike his Paisley peers.

Jonathan Obika is assumed to be an option for direct football because of his size, but his 26.87 per cent success rate in the air is almost 10 percentage points fewer than Dykes and a whopping 28 off Aberdeen's Sam Cosgrove, the most effective aerial striker in the league. To underline how little suited Obika is to this, Ross County's diminutive forward Billy Mckay has won more of his aerial battles.

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A dejected Sam Foley as St Mirren go down 2-0 to Motherwell. Picture: SNSA dejected Sam Foley as St Mirren go down 2-0 to Motherwell. Picture: SNS
A dejected Sam Foley as St Mirren go down 2-0 to Motherwell. Picture: SNS

Hampered in their efforts to make the ball stick in the opposing third it keeps coming back. The defence has stood up well to the pressure (more on that shortly) but it's hampered their ability to routinely threaten opponents.

Furthermore, there's a duality to centre-midfield pair Ryan Flynn and Sam Foley. Both have impressed this season and are excellent at protecting the back-line and launching counter-attacks with their ability to break up play. However, both are stationed so deep on the park that they struggle to get involved at the other end. Often you'll see one of the wingers in space but with limited options available in the centre.

Goodwin could loosen the leash and enable one of the two (most likely Flynn) to break forward with greater regularity. But would the defence suffer as a result?

The lack of attacking talent

The Buddies have the fourth best defence in the Ladbrokes Premiership, having conceded eight goals in eight games. It's a mark bettered only by Celtic, Rangers and Kilmarnock. Goodwin has made his team organised, disciplined and robust, just like he did at Alloa Athletic last season as he successfully avoided either relegation place despite being in charge of the only part-time team in the second tier. Unfortunately, things aren't as positive at the other end of the field.

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St Mirren have found the back of the net only three times in the league this season. They've only scored six in all competitions despite facing a Championship, League Two and non-league side in the Betfred Cup group stage, which they crashed out of without a single victory in 90 minutes.

Goodwin's tactics can be questioned, but the real problem is a lack of ability up top. Danny Mullen has showed himself capable of being a serviceable squad player, but the 24-year-old has yet to develop into a talismanic striker at this level. They really needed either of Obika and Morais to fill that role, yet neither looks up to the job.

Andreu would've been a great signing if they were getting the 2016 version of the French playmaker. Unfortunately, a serious knee injury sustained at Coventry City seems to have robbed the No.10 of his mojo. Even prior to his arrival at The Simple Digital Arena he looked past his best in a loan stint at Hamilton Accies in the second half of last season.

Ilkay Durmus has shown flashes but his decision making in the final third is routinely questionable. The other options out wide, Kyle Magennis and Kyle McAllister, are promising young attackers but aren't at a level where they can prop up a unit that is well below league average.

Gambling on January

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Two and a half months is a long time to wait for reinforcements to arrive, so it's imperative that St Mirren improve before the window opens and their options for improving the squad aren't limited to free agents who won't be match fit for several weeks.

The Goodwin-Gus McPherson tandem did not produce the required results in the summer, at least in attack anyway. Pressure is now on them to correct those wrongs next time around.

There were mitigating factors. The protracted departure of Oran Kearney and eventual hiring of Goodwin meant they were playing catch up from the start and didn't sign the majority until either the final week or once the season had started. Fans could point the finger at McPherson, as director of football, and say he should've kept things running smoothly in the recruitment department while the managerial situation was being sorted, but as St Mirren give the head coach final say on all transfers it would have been a difficult position to be in. What if he signed players that his new manager immediately discarded?

January has proven to be a happy hunting ground for clubs throughout the years. Ross County once shot up into the top six off the back of business conducted halfway through the season, while everyone remembers Hibs' ascent under Neil Lennon when they added a few missing pieces to their puzzle. However, there are just as many stories of things going horribly wrong. Dundee, Ross County, Dundee United, they all crashed out of the division with barely a whimper after wholesale changes in the winter months failed to halt the inevitable.

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It's a gamble, but at this point in time it's one they'll have to make.

High-use Hladky

As previously mentioned, the positive from this season has been the defence. However, there are indications that it won't be sustainable across the entire season. Vaclav Hladky is an excellent goalkeeper, but it would even be a strain for someone of his talents if he were asked to bail St Mirren out in the manner he has through eight matches across the course of the campaign. He's faced the second most shots per 90 minutes in the league, as only Hibs have allowed opponents to get more attempts on target.

The last outing against Motherwell was the first 2019/20 league match where they lost a game by more than a single goal. Though any St Mirren supporter in attendance would tell you it could have been at least double the 2-0 scoreline had it not been for the Czech custodian.

As good as the defence has been, unless the attacking players come into some form then it's going to have to be tightened a little further.

The clubs around them

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The media, St Mirren supporters, other fans, other players, other mascots, everybody in Scottish football except Tony Fitzpatrick expected the Buddies to battle near the foot of the table for the majority of the 2019/20 campaign. Therefore, sitting in the bottom four after eight games doesn't exactly scream 'panic!' in the same way it does for Hearts and Hibs.

The problem is that, sooner or later, everyone expects the two Edinburgh clubs to climb the table. The same goes for St Johnstone, who are currently propping up the rest. They may not have the financial backing of the aforementioned capital duo, but on paper they have a much stronger squad than their fellows Saints, especially in attack.

Of the clubs who were expected to join St Mirren in the dogfight, two of them look much better than expected. Livingston have rebounded seamlessly from the loss of several key players in the summer to keep their reputation as greater-than-the-sum-of-their-parts champions, while County have adapted to the top flight with a proficiency few envisaged from last season's Championship title winners. They currently sit six and seven points, respectively, ahead of Goodwin's men.

Barring a collapse from either of those - which, optimistically, could still happen with a lot of football left to be played - it would appear that St Mirren will look to Hamilton Accies as their biggest rivals in the relegation dogfight. The Lanarkshire outfit have not impressed at all so far this campaign, but while the football has remained attritional they continue to squeeze out points when everyone is writing them off. Even if those at the Fountain of Youth Stadium become submerged, St Mirren would still be looking at another play-off final appearance unless they get their act together.

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