F1 preview: Surprises everywhere - except at the front

In this most unpredictable of seasons, there are few certainties but, according to former team boss Eddie Jordan, the destination of the drivers' title and the constructors' championship are two of the nearest.

For only the second time in F1 history, there will be five world champions on the grid. But whereas in 1970 Jack Brabham, John Surtees, Denny Hulme, Graham Hill and Jackie Stewart were outdone by Jochen Rindt - who remains the only posthumous F1 champion after he was killed in practice for the Italian Grand Prix - this year few believe the champion will come from outside the big five.

Indeed, despite the presence of Jenson Button, Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso and Michael Schumacher, Jordan cannot see beyond Red Bull's Sebastian Vettel retaining the championship.

"I'd put my money on Vettel for the championship," he says. "He'll be much stronger than last year and the car's better than it was last year. I think he has the measure of (team-mate] Mark Webber now. He showed great style, speed and charisma towards the end of last year and I just think he'll kick on from there."

Vettel recently signed a deal that will keep him at Red Bull until 2014, a deal which Jordan says was "the only decision he could make". As well as a lack of lead seats elsewhere, at Red Bull the young German has a car designed by aerodynamic genius Adrian Newey, a man with an unrivalled record of producing title-winning cars.

If Vettel has a challenger, it is almost certain to be Ferrari's two-times world champion Fernando Alonso. Although last year's late charge for the title fell apart at Interlagos in Brazil, Jordan believes that the painful memory of that final day will spur on the Spaniard.

"Ferrari took their eye off the ball at the end of last season and put their focus on Mark Webber instead of the person who went on to win the race and the title," says Jordan. "But Alonso is hard core: if anyone is going to make it difficult for Vettel this year then it'll be him."

Though Red Bull and Ferrari are way out in front, behind them is a pack of seven teams which Jordan believes will be neck-and-neck, making for an enthralling and unpredictable championship.

"I don't see that there are four main teams any more, there are now two - Ferrari and Red Bull," he says. "Then there are seven teams who can all spring surprises.Toro Rosso will be quick; Sauber will be quick; McLaren has done less testing than any team except Hispania but has the resources to pull itself out of a poor pre-season, as does Mercedes, but those two will be in for some shocks at the beginning of the season."

Jordan's constant caveat is the possibility of a major technological innovation which will give one team a huge initial advantage, as Brawn's double-diffuser did two years ago. Even without some as yet unknown game-changer, the change from natural rubber Bridgestone tyres to less hard-wearing synthetic Pirellis, which will mean that teams will have to make three or four pit stops, is a recipe for surprises.

Eddie Jordan is the BBC's Formula 1 analyst. BBC is covering this season's championship in HD