Allan Massie: Henry hides All Blacks' light under a bushel by playing down their World Cup chances

Of course he is not alone among top coaches in being more given to glowers than smiles. If England's Martin Johnson had pursued his original career in banking rather than rugby, and risen to be your branch manager, I doubt if you would have felt sanguine in approaching him for a loan or overdraft. And, though Jim Telfer can be wryly amusing in private, his public face usually seemed to be carved out of granite.

So we probably should greet Graham Henry's gloomy ruminations about the forthcoming World Cup with a certain scepticism. If we are to believe him, an awful lot of his All Black squad are "overdone". They've had a hard summer, and there is more to come with the Tri-Nations ahead of them, even if the tournament has been truncated this year. He will, it seems, have to bring them down before he can build them up again. A coach's life is terribly hard.

Meanwhile, perhaps because his moaning appeared on the BBC sports website, he also spent time building up some of the Northern Hemisphere teams. England are getting "better and better" - maybe he didn't see them blow their Grand Slam chance in Dublin? Never mind: "Martin Johnson has done a great job". They have "the potential to be a very fine side in the World Cup." Ireland are good all-round and "have plenty of potency behind the scrum". "We'd be foolish not to think the French are a threat". The off-field troubles Wales have been experiencing "may give them some edge". He had nothing to say about Italy or Scotland, which puts us comfortably in the underdog/rank outsider position.

If Henry wasn't so naturally lugubrious, one might think he was hedging his bets, or, in expressing fears that his NZ team may be in danger of burnout, getting his excuses in early. Admittedly his position is difficult. The All Blacks are the best side in the world, and have been so consistently for years. The World Cup is being played in New Zealand. Everybody thinks they should win it, but even in New Zealand some fear that they will once again blow it. You can't fairly call the present squad chokers, but there is a history of choking. New Zealand have gone into every World Cup as favourites, but they have won only one, way back in the first RWC in 1987. Still more remarkably, they have reached only one final since, in South Africa in 1995. They have lost twice to Australia - in the 1991 and 2003 semi-finals - and twice to France, in the 1999 semi and 2007 quarter-final. Surely they can't crumble again? Maybe not, but it was significant that Henry should say it was a good thing that France is in their pool, rather than waiting for them in the knock-out stages. So they can lose to France in the pool match, but still go on to win the cup. Perhaps he was hinting that the All Blacks might find it easier to beat France in the pool than if they were to meet them at a later stage of proceedings.

Actually I doubt if he fears any of the northern hemisphere countries, even in a one-off game. It would be remarkable if England, France or Ireland wins the cup - and it is fair to say that these are the only three of the Six Nations that have even an outside chance of doing so. It would be nice of course to suggest that Scotland might do so, but the truth is that we all know we will have done well if we get out of a pool that contains England and Argentina, and maintain our record of having reached the quarter-final in each of the six tournaments to date.

If New Zealand don't win, then the most likely winner is either Australia or South Africa. Both have one advantage over the northern countries: they don't suffer from an inferiority complex when they stand watching the All Blacks do their haka. Which one has the better chance? That may depend on how the tournament is played. If the rugby is as sterile as it was in France in 2007, then one would favour South Africa, masters of the limited, play-safe game, and with two players, Morne Steyn and Francois Steyn, who can kick goals (penalties or drops) from vast distances. If, on the other hand, we get a feast of running rugby, then Australia must have a better chance. They may not be able to scrum, but their back play can be inventive and deadly.

As for old Mr Gloom and Grumpy, he has one big decision to make. Does he wrap Dan Carter in cotton wool for the next few weeks, leaving him out of most, at least, of the Tri-Nations, so that he is fit for the Cup? Difficult. It would be absurd to suggest that the All Blacks are a one-man team, but it is undeniable that they are a much better side when Carter is at 10 than when he is absent. They may win the Cup with him, but I doubt if they will do so if he isn't fit and available for the knock-out matches. He is that important to them.

23 July: Australia v South Africa, 11:00, in Sydney

30 July: New Zealand v South Africa, 08:30, in Wellington

6 August: New Zealand v Australia, 10:30, in Auckland

13 August: South Africa v Australia, 10:30, in Durban

20 August: South Africa v New Zealand, 10:30, in Port Elizabeth

27 August: Australia v New Zealand, kick-off to be confirmed, in Brisbane

All kick-offs BST