What do the EU election results mean for Scotland and the UK, as Emmanuel Macron calls snap election?

Emmanuel Macron’s snap election came as a surprise to voters on Sunday night

It is set to be a busy – and tumultuous – few weeks for France.

Not only is Paris putting the finishing touches to the preparations for the Paris Olympics, but president Emmanuel Macron has called a surprise snap election after a victory for right-wing parties in the European Union elections.

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Initial results from the EU vote suggest Marine LePen’s far-right party National Rally, was on track to win over 30 per cent of the vote in France after having campaigned heavily on migration and crime, while Mr Macron’s pro-business, centrist Renew party looks likely to gain just 15 per cent.

French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election.French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election.
French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election.

Across the bloc, which has its roots in the defeat of Nazi Germany and fascist Italy, the far-right made gains. Italian premier Giorgia Meloni more than doubled her party’s seats in the assembly. Meanwhile, despite numerous recent scandals involving candidates and other party workers – ranging from alleged support for Nazis to spying for China - the Alternative for Germany (AfD) extreme right party still gained enough seats to beat the Social Democrat party of Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

"After all the prophecies of doom, after the barrage of the last few weeks, we are the second strongest force," AfD leader Alice Weidel said, adding she believed her party had succeeded “because people have become more anti-European”.

The turmoil across the bloc saw the value of the Euro tumble on Monday morning.

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Meanwhile, the decision to call an election is being regarded as a major political gamble for Mr Macron.

The president, who has led France since 2017, made the shock announcement in a televised speech an hour after the polls closed on Sunday night.

“I have heard your message,” the president said, announcing the dissolution of the French parliament. "And I will not let it go without a response."

Ms Le Pen said she was delighted to accept the challenge, saying her party was ready to govern. If she did win the election, Mr Macron would be likely to remain as president – with the next presidential elections due to take place in 2027.

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“We’re ready to turn the country around, ready to defend the interests of the French, ready to put an end to mass immigration,” she said, echoing the rallying cry of so many far-right leaders in other countries who were celebrating substantial wins.

Mr Macron said the election would take place in two rounds on 30 June and 7 July – the second taking place less than three weeks before the Olympics begins.

The EU elections have been long-expected to reflect a swing in opinion towards the right. Since the last EU election in 2019, populist or far-right parties now lead governments in three nations – Hungary, Slovakia and Italy – and are part of ruling coalitions in others including Sweden, Finland and, soon, the Netherlands.

EU president Ursula van Leyen’s mainstream and pro-European Christian Democrat party, alongside the Socialists, remained dominant with an expected 189 and 135 seats respectively, however CD only did so after months of moving towards the right on issues such as migration and climate change, in a bid to hold on to the support of voters.

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Right-wing gains came at the expense of the Greens, who are set to fall back to sixth position in the legislature.

Despite remaining in charge, the political changes will make it much harder for the centrist, pro-Europe assembly to approve legislation on issues ranging from climate change to agriculture policy.

Ms von der Leyen, who has put forward a deal to form a coalition with the Social Democrats and the pro-business Liberals, welcomed her party’s success.

Pro-right groups are also expected to hold discussions over potential tie ups, although whether the disparate groups across the 27-member union will be able to form a cohesive union to challenge the ruling parties is uncertain.

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Provisional results showed that the Christian Democrats would have 189 seats, up 13, the Social Democrats 135, down four, and the pro-business Renew group 83, down 19. The Greens slumped to 53, down by 18.

“We are by far the strongest party, We are the anchor of stability,” Ms von der Leyen said, adding that the result brings “great stability for the parties in the centre”.

“We all have interest in stability and we all want a strong and effective Europe”.

Even in a post-Brexit world, the swing to the right could have a wider effect on Scotland and the rest of the UK.

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The left-leaning SNP has long claimed that if it won a second referendum, Scotland could re-join the European Union as an independent country. However, if current trends continued, resulting in the bloc being led by right-wing parties, such a move may become more difficult.

Next month’s General Election is likely to see a swing to the left with a win for the Labour Part in Westminster, after 14 years of a Conservative government – a move which will put Britain at odds with the wider trend in Europe.

Once a fairly cohesive, moderate bloc, issues such as the Ukraine war have polarised European nations in recent times, with countries such as Serbia demonstrating support for Russia, as well as Slovakia, where prime minister Robert Fico, who survived an assassination attempt last month, said if elected, he would withdraw all support for Ukraine in a clear U-turn from the country’s previous stance, when it was the first country to deliver fighter jets to the conflict-hit nation.

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