Former Democratic Vice President Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump in the US election this November, according to an academic who has accurately predicted the last eight vote results.
History professor Allan Lichtman, from American University in Washington, developed his “Keys to the White House” prediction system in the 1980s, relying on “big picture” themes of each presidential election, rather than polls or punditry.
Instead, the "13 keys" in Lichtman’s system include factors such as the economy, incumbency, social unrest and scandals, as well as the candidates' personal charisma.
It has accurately predicted the winner of each election since Ronald Reagan’s reelection victory in 1984.
In 2000, however, Prof Lichtman said Bill Clinton’s former Vice President Al Gore would beat Texas Governor George W. Bush.
While Mr Gore won the national popular vote in an extremely tight election, Mr Bush went on to win the Electoral College vote after a controversial recount of votes in Florida.
Nevertheless, Professor Lichtman stands by his prediction.
Now, in an interview with CNN, Lichtman explained his latest edict, saying: "The keys predict that Donald Trump will lose the White House this year.
"The secret is keeping your eye on the big picture of incumbent strength and performance.
“And don't pay any attention to the polls, the pundits, the day-to-day ups and downs of the campaign. And that's what the keys gauge. The big picture," he said.
Asked whether his system could account for the upheaval caused by the global coronavirus pandemic, Lichtman said: “Look, retrospectively and prospectively, the keys go all the way back to 1860. They are what we call a robust system.
“So, I don't fiddle with them,” he added, “They've lasted through enormous changes in our politics, in our economy, in our democracy. Don't fiddle with the keys.”