US paves way for a retreat from Iraq

Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, yesterday confirmed that proposals for reducing the American "footprint" in Iraq were advancing. "I suspect that American forces are not going to be needed in the numbers that they're there for all that much longer, because Iraqis are continuing to make progress in function, not just in numbers, but in their capabilities to do certain functions," she said.

The development came as the US military command in Iraq said its soldiers and the Iraqi army have killed more than 700 suspected insurgents since September in western Iraq. Over the same period, the US military has lost more than 170 troops, including 80 in the troubled Sunni province of Anbar.

The Pentagon's plan for beginning pulling out from Iraq comes amid an increasingly partisan debate on the future of American policy in the country.

Democrats in Congress have stepped up their attacks on the Bush administration, charging that the White House and Pentagon misled the electorate in the run-up to the war. The Senate voted last week to demand quarterly progress reports from Iraq, increasing the pressure for a reduction in the number of US troops in theatre before next year's Congressional elections.

Democrats are also demanding that the administration set a timetable for withdrawing US forces - a proposal the administration has consistently rejected for fear that it would merely embolden the insurgency, and that too rapid a withdrawal risks leaving Iraq in even greater chaos if the newly trained Iraqi security forces and army are not ready to take over from coalition troops.

"This is not just a matter of training numbers of Iraqi forces, but actually seeing them hold territory," said Ms Rice.

The proposals would represent only a moderate reduction of US forces however. Fifteen brigades would remain in Iraq with another stationed "on call" in Kuwait, ready to be deployed if required.

US officials stress, however, that no final decision on troop levels will be taken until after the Iraqi elections on 15 December.

The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon has determined a series of "decision points" during 2006 to consider further reductions in the number of troops in Iraq that, under a "moderately optimistic" scenario, would see the total number of troops stationed in Iraq by the end of next year decline to fewer than 100,000 from the more than 150,000 at present.

Despite that scenario, the Pentagon remains cautious. "A precipitous pull-out, I believe, would be destabilising," said Lt-Gen John Vines, the second most senior US commander in Iraq. "I'm not going to get into a timetable. It will be driven by conditions on the ground."

Some Republicans on Capitol Hill have accused Democrats of undermining the war effort. Congressman Mark Kennedy, a Minnesota Republican who has recently returned from a visit to Iraq, said: "By far the number one concern of the military is not their conditions there or the enemy they are facing, but the tone of the debate in Congress on Friday and, generally, the tone of many people in the media. It was regularly brought up. Some of the troops said it undermined their effort."

"Of course the debate and the bitterness [of it] is disturbing. But, after all, we are a democracy and that is what democracy is about. People will have differences of opinion," said Lt-Gen Vines. "Certainly, soldiers are concerned about whether or not they enjoy the support of not only their elected representatives but the people. And they know that they have their support."

Lawrence Di Rita, the Pentagon's chief spokesman, said this week that coalition military commanders in Iraq are mindful that the very presence of American forces may inspire insurgent violence in parts of that country, adding that this concern needed to be factored in to decisions about future US force levels. "The tension that the commanders feel between heavy presence and lower footprint is something they're measuring all the time."

A few leading politicians, including Senator John McCain have called for more, not fewer, troops to be sent to Iraq to defeat the insurgency. That proposal is a minority view on Capitol Hill however, and there is no sign that the White House or Pentagon are considering boosting the number of American soldiers garrisoned in Iraq. Opinion polls consistently find that a majority of the electorate is dissatisfied with progress in Iraq and would favour a more dramatic reduction in US troop levels than the Pentagon is proposing.

Enthusiasm for "staying the course" is waning, even though Congress last week rejected a call from respected Vietnam war veteran Congressman John Murtha to begin a much more rapid withdrawal of troops than anything currently being considered by the White House.

Al-Qaeda in Iraq yesterday denied that its leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, was among those killed in a weekend gunfight in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul.

On Saturday, Iraqi and US soldiers fought a fierce battle after reports that al-Qaeda members, possibly including Zarqawi, were inside a house there.

Three insurgents detonated explosives and killed themselves to avoid capture and five more died in fighting, while four police officers also were killed.

Iraqi and US sources confirmed that DNA tests were under way to determine if Zarqawi was among the dead though the White House had said reports of Zarqawi's death were "highly unlikely and not credible".