Ukraine’s secret weapon against invasion is Vladimir Putin, expert claims

Ukraine's "secret weapon" is Vladimir Putin - due to the way his one-person state has controlled the Russian military to its detriment, one of the world’s leading experts on Russian security affairs has told a public lecture at Edinburgh University.

Mark Galeotti, writer and analyst on Russian security affairs, looked at the issue of ‘What does defeat in Ukraine tell us about Putin's Russia?’ at the annual Erickson lecture at the University of Edinburgh.

In the university's annual Erickson lecture, Mark Galeotti, writer and analyst on Russian security affairs, considered the issue of ‘What does defeat in Ukraine tell us about Putin's Russia?’.

“Russia had phenomenal strengths and capacity,” he said, adding that defence analysts had initially assumed Russia would conquer Ukraine quickly because of its military potential.

"Ukraine had initiative and ingenuity one other secret weapon and that was Vladimir Putin – and that was because he ensured that war began in a ridiculously cack-handed way, wasted Russian opportunity and squandered Russia’s best troops.”

He said Putin’s circle of close advisers has become “more and more narrow”.

"There used to be people in his circle who actually could challenge him, who could question him and he actually would listen,” he said. “But what’s left is a collection of 68 to 74 year old men, who are of the same social and career background of Putin himself; who believe the same things, or are simply willing to echo the same things because that’s what Putin wants.”

He pointed to the current battle going on over the city of Bakhmut, which he said had “no military value”.

"Why? because the ‘tsar’ wants a victory,” he said.

He said he believed there would ultimately be a Ukrainian victory in the conflict, which began last February when Russia invaded Ukraine, as Mr Putin’s regime loses power.

"I have no idea when this will happen and it’s not clear what the word means, but I think it is clear Ukraine will win. Does this mean taking back all of the occupied territories? Does it mean some kind of thing where there is another referendum in Crimea, this time a genuine one under international auspices? The form we don’t know, but my belief is Ukraine will win.

"Putin’s regime is one which is being hollowed out. It is losing funds, it’s losing support from the elite. That’s not to say it is all going to collapse tomorrow, but what it does say is that when some kind of true systemic crisis emerges, then that’s when Putin is in trouble.”

Mr Galeotti pointed to a lack of obvious support for Mr Putin’s war on Ukraine, saying that most Russians are avoiding voicing an opinion on the conflict. Many people who have spoken out against the invasion, or have joined in protests in Russia, have been imprisoned.

However, he described the West as “Ukraine’s weak link”.

"If the West’s unity and will to continue to support Ukraine begins to falter in any significant way, then Kyiv is in trouble,” he added.

He said Mr Putin’s initial aim of an invasion and a war lasting a couple of weeks before Ukraine was defeated, had continued to falter over the past year.

"This is not what he set out to do,” he said. “Remember, this was about the ‘de-Nazification’ of Ukraine. In other words, the replacing of the current government with a puppet regime.”