Two-horse race for Irish presidency

IT BEGAN with seven candidates all vying for the job but with Ireland’s presidential election less than a week away, the field has narrowed to just two names.

Opinion polls put Independent Sean Gallagher and Labour’s Michael D Higgins far ahead of the rest, with ruling party Fine Gael facing an embarrassing defeat in Thursday’s vote.

Indications are Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell could struggle to secure the 12.5 per cent needed to claim expenses under Irish electoral law. In a tacit acknowledgement of Mr Mitchell’s difficulties, taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny admitted he is to discuss a voting pact with Eamon Gilmore, leader of coalition partners Labour, ahead of next week’s presidential election.

“I will talk to Eamon Gilmore about that,’ Mr Kenny said when asked whether Fine Gael supporters should give Labour’s Mr Higgins their second preferences.

“We will consider the position later in the week. I will talk to the Labour leader and see what to do. But for us the challenge is to get the Fine Gael vote out,” added Mr Kenny.

On Wednesday, former front-runner Mr Higgins, who has seen Mr Gallagher open up a 12-point lead in polls over the last week, said he “wouldn’t be against” a transfer pact with Independent Senator David Norris. However, as yet there have been no formal discussions.

Under the single-transferable voting system, transfers between candidates can be crucial in deciding the outcome of tight contests. In 1990, Mary Robinson won just 39 per cent of the popular vote compared with 45 per cent for Fianna Fail’s Brian Lenihan, but thanks to strong transfers from Fine Gael voters she became the first female president in Ireland’s history. “Transfers could be very significant this time around. How well Gallagher or Higgins attract transfers from the other candidates could well be the determining factor,’ said Adrian Kavanagh, an election expert at the National University of Ireland. A recent poll put Mr Gallagher on 39 per cent but Mr Kavanagh cautions the race is not over yet, pointing to shifts in polls during the last two presidential campaigns.

“There was very little movement in the polls during this year’s general election [in February]. But presidential elections tend to be more of a personality contest – they are less about bread and butter issues and more about the type of candidate people like. Polls can change quite a bit during the campaign.”

This year’s campaign has stood in stark contrast to traditionally rather sedate presidential elections, thanks in no small part to the candidacy of Sinn Fein’s Martin McGuinness. Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister has struggled under sustained questioning of his role in the IRA, with polls suggesting he could fail to win 15 per cent of the vote. Meanwhile, sex scandals have undermined the prospects of independents Mr Norris and Dana Rosemary Scanlon, the former Eurovision singer.

As the campaign enters its final stretch, media attention has focused heavily on Mr Gallagher, who emerged from relative political obscurity to lead the pack. He was previously a full-time constituency organiser for former Fianna Fáil member of the Dail, Rory O’Hanlon, and sat on Fianna Fail’s ruling national executive until January. After their drubbing in February’s election, Fianna Fail, the party of government during the Celtic Tiger era and its calamitous aftermath, decided not to put up a presidential candidate, fearing electoral humiliation.