Splitting Iraq into three- solution or fresh nightmare?

Q: How would a split work, both in ethnic terms and geographically?

A: US military planners believe that to help quell sectarian violence, Iraq could be divided into three broad ethnic regions: Kurds in the north, Sunnis to the west of Baghdad and Shias in the south.

However, the country is not as neatly divided along ethnic grounds as some strategists would like to believe. For example, the capital is already seeing forced relocation of ethnic groups such as Sunnis - who once lived peacefully next to their Shia neighbours east of the Tigris - who are now moving west.

And more than half of Iraq's 26 million citizens live in just four cities; three of those have an ethnic mix.

Q: Why are these plans being considered now?

A: They are not new. As early as 2002, before the invasion, the US vice-president, Dick Cheney, and deputy defence secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, were drawing up plans for the break-up of Iraq. Their vision involved joining the Sunni west with pro-US Jordan into one large Hashemite kingdom.

US military bases could secure the oil-rich areas of the Shia south and Kurdish north. But the continued presence of western forces could exacerbate tensions in a divided Iraq.

New but similar plans are being floated by James Baker, the former US secretary of state, who is advising President George Bush. Republicans are facing continuing political pressure at home over the heavy US casualties in the run-up to the November mid-term elections.

Q: What would be the likely impact on the country if it were to be split into three?

A: The plans mooted by Mr Baker would impose a federalised structure and more devolution to the regions.

However, it would involve large-scale displacement because of Iraq's jumbled ethnic divide. Middle East experts have almost universally predicted spiralling violence if Iraq were to be carved up. The Iraqi army, security services and police would have to be disbanded and reformed along sectarian lines.

The military is largely Shiite with a significant number of Kurds while the ministry of interior forces are largely Shiite, and the police are mixed.

Given the lessons from the aftermath of the invasion, disbanding these services would lead to a vacuum that would be filled by local militia. This would trigger even more localised violence within the three regions.

Experts predict that daily life would become even more dangerous and the road to political and economic recovery would be made even longer.

Q: What would be the impact on the region and wider world?

A: Dr Mai Yamani, a regional expert at the Chatham House think tank, said a divided Iraq would have a "domino effect" on the rest of the region.

"The implications for other nations including new states such as Saudi Arabia, which was unified in 1932, would be severe," she said. "We could have the splintering of states and change throughout the region."

Pro-US governments would also be vulnerable to populist or Islamist uprisings, she added.

Syria, Iran and Turkey would all object to an emboldened Kurdish state, fearing an uprising of Kurds in their own countries. Meanwhile, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan could be left to prop up the Sunnis, who, having no oil fields of their own, would be left struggling to find an alternative economy. This poverty would fuel political tensions and possibly deliver Sunnis into the hands of terrorists.

There would be a struggle between Shia factions about who would take control of the oil-rich south, particularly Basra.

Experts warn that overall, the division would hamper the war on terrorism.