Spain ponders 'yes' vote for Europe

SPAIN is likely to say "yes" to the new European Constitution when it becomes the first EU member to vote on the issue today.

All the mainstream parties, from the ruling Socialists to the opposition conservatives, are calling for a "yes" vote.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has enlisted French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on the campaign trail. The government has also brought in celebrities, such as former Dutch football star Johan Cruyff, who became manager of Barcelona, and Real Madrid’s director of sport, Emilio Butragueno, to record radio and television advertising.

But the expected low turnout could raise awkward questions before tough polls in France and Britain, and put the entire European project in jeopardy. Though polls suggest that only one in 20 Spaniards intend to vote "no", the main obstacle is voter apathy. Requests for postal votes have been fewer than in the 2004 European elections, suggesting turnout could be as low as 35%, analysts say.

"Since Spain is regarded as strongly pro-European, a good result would not make headlines but a poor result would set the whole process off on a wobbly footing," says political analyst Charles Powell of Madrid’s Real Instituto Elcano.

"Turnout below 40% would be regarded as a serious defeat to Zapatero and a blow to his prestige."

The toughest test will come when France votes in a referendum, probably in May or June.

A "no" vote in France would be lethal since France and Germany together provide the driving force behind the European Union. Polls in France show the "yes" vote ahead, but the "no" side gaining strength.

The constitution, designed to streamline EU decision-making now that it has 25 members, must be ratified by all EU member states, either through a referendum or by vote in the national parliament.

Eight or nine are taking the referendum route. The rest have decided to ratify the treaty through their parliaments. Three (Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia) have already ratified it.

The "no" side also has the potential to cause an upset in the Netherlands, where a referendum is due this summer - as well as in Denmark, Ireland, Poland, the Czech Republic, France and Britain. Portugal is likely to vote "yes" in April.

Experts consider that a "no" vote by Britain, which is expected to hold its referendum next year, could somehow be accommodated.

But Daniel Keohane of the Centre for European Reform, a London think tank, says that if France votes against, "the constitutional treaty is dead". If the Czech Republic votes against, the other 24 will move ahead with the charter.

"The members states are all equal legally. But as George Orwell said, to paraphrase him, some member states are more equal than others."